Forbes published an article headlined "What Will Happen To Putin's Approval Ratings Once Russia's Economy Plummets?"
"As Russia continues to retrench into a dictatorship, optimism about Russia’s democratic potential seems a distant memory. But it was only 21 years ago that Russian President Boris Yeltsin addressed U.S. Congress as Russia’s first popularly-elected president and “as a citizen of the great country which has made its choice in favor of liberty and democracy,” promising, “[t]here will be no more lies–ever,” the article begins.
"Today, Russia’s choice hardly appears in favor of democracy. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings soared after he annexed Crimea in March 2014, from an all-time low of approximately 53 percent, to an all-time high, over 80 percent. And so far, the high approval ratings show few signs of decline."
"Capital is fleeing Russia. According to Russia’s official statistics, approximately $75 billion left the country in the first half of 2014, although the real numbers are likely to be far higher. ”Somewhere between $100 billion and $200 billion of capital flight has taken place,” said President Barack Obama on August 6," the author of the article, Anna Borshchevskaya, writes.
"And capital is not the only thing fleeing Russia. According to Russia’s official statistics, the number of Russian emigrants in the last two years grew by approximately 500 percent as compared to 2010 and 2011. Again, the real numbers are probably higher," the article reads.
"Capital and people were fleeing Russia even before the Ukraine crisis, but the crisis is exacerbating the problem. Western sanctions, if anything, will only make the situation worse, by reducing investor confidence."
"What does all of this mean for Putin’s regime and the future of democracy in Russia? Putin will fight for power. He will keep blaming the West for Russia’s problems as he attempts to shield his traditional support base from the effects of the economic decline, likely keeping state sector salaries high and raising military spending. This means his policies will not be aimed at economic efficiency, and will therefore only drive the economy further down," the author writes.
"He will also try to punish the elites for their lack of support. One example of this is Putin’s ban in August on certain food and agricultural products in relations for Western sanctions. The ban targeted wealthy urban elites who consume these products, as majority of Russia’s population relies primarily on domestic products. The ban is likely driving up inflation, exacerbating Russia’s economic decline even further," the article reads.
"In a way, history is repeating itself in Russia. The Soviet Union collapsed from economic inefficiencies. Ultimately the Soviet authorities could not conceal forever their massive failure from the population, nor convince it that the West is to blame for their problems. Russia’s people at the time may not have been thinking about freedom and democracy directly, but they were fed up with the poor economy and with daily disrespect doled out by petty bureaucrats. And deep down, they resented the Soviet authorities for cutting them off from the rest of the world," the author of the article believes.
"Putin promised to bring stability and prosperity, but as the economy keeps plummeting, more people will start asking themselves if he delivered on his promise. Russia’s history generally does not lend itself to optimism. Whether freedom and democracy will come to Russia anytime soon is an open question. But Putin has put Russia on a path of economic decline, just as the Soviet authorities had done to Russia before him. And just as the Soviet leadership lost the support of its population, it is likely, that so will Putin," she concludes.
