Russian Ministry for Industry and Trade condemns crisis forecasts

The Russian Ministry for Industry and Trade has called the figures of GDP growth rate presented by the Ministry for Economic Development for 2013-2015 too optimistic, Interfax reports.

The Ministry for Economic Development proposes two versions of crisis forecasts, scenario A (an optimistic one) and scenario A2 (more pessimistic).

The Ministry for Industry and Trade believes that oil prices under $60 per barrel in scenario A2 cannot happen without reduction of demand for fuel at foreign markets. A global economic growth rate of 1.2% and current tendencies may reduce oil prices.

Even devaluation of national currency to 45.9 rubles per dollar would not allow prevention of reduction of exports and GDP.

Capital outflow of $80 billion and lack of state compensation may cause greater reduction of investments in the main capital in 2013, than 9.1% in the A2 plan.

Reduction of investments by 9.1% and retail turnover by 3.8% would reduce industrial output by 1.9% in 2013, the ministry says.