The Russian Ministry for Industry and Trade has called the figures of GDP growth rate presented by the Ministry for Economic Development for 2013-2015 too optimistic, Interfax reports.
The Ministry for Economic Development proposes two versions of crisis forecasts, scenario A (an optimistic one) and scenario A2 (more pessimistic).
The Ministry for Industry and Trade believes that oil prices under $60 per barrel in scenario A2 cannot happen without reduction of demand for fuel at foreign markets. A global economic growth rate of 1.2% and current tendencies may reduce oil prices.
Even devaluation of national currency to 45.9 rubles per dollar would not allow prevention of reduction of exports and GDP.
Capital outflow of $80 billion and lack of state compensation may cause greater reduction of investments in the main capital in 2013, than 9.1% in the A2 plan.
Reduction of investments by 9.1% and retail turnover by 3.8% would reduce industrial output by 1.9% in 2013, the ministry says.
