Commenting on the prospects of development of economic relations between Washington and Moscow, experts usually talk about the hope of weakening or even cancellation of US sanctions in 2017. Meanwhile, it is obvious that economic relations between Russia and the United States have never been active, and geographical distance is not the only reason.
As professor of the Higher School of Economics Yevgeny Gavrilenkov belives, it is necessary to consider the scale of both economies: "The US economy is 18-19 trillion dollars. After the ruble adjusted to the current level of oil prices, our economy is just 1,2-1,3 trillion, maybe 1,4-1,5 trillion in the coming years. In other words, the difference is more than tenfold. Do you think American business is interested in such system, which also doesn't grow? In the coming year our economy will grow by about 1%. From 2008 to 2017 Russia's GDP should grow by only 7,4%. In 10 years the average annual dynamics is about 0,7% per year. Are they interested in investing in such economy? According to official government forecast, in the coming years the growth will be somewhere at 1-2%. It's lower than what is predicted for the United States. Is it better to invest in the domestic economy, which is growing faster, or in some neighboring economies, or in the Russian economy, where economic policy is not very clear?"
According to expert, in order to create interest in the United States, Russia must show attractive economic dynamics: "When China had more or less clear game rules, there were signs that Chinese economy is beginning to grow on its own, and it started to receive investments, which made economic growth in the country even stronger. We don't have this yet."
Gavrilenkov also noted that it's necessary to consider informational space, in which Russian and American business work: "The informational space is very clogged. It's full of trash, not information. Same events are presented differently. President, even if he's president of the United States, is just president, not emperor or king. There is a Congress, there is a system of checks and balances, external restrictions, partners from NATO and G7, there are trade interests with other countries. Whether Russia fits here or not is a very difficult question. Russia should improve economy in order to begin restoration of relations. Then business will have more interest in seriously cooperation with Russia not only in the oil industry."
