German political scientist Christian Hacke shared with Dlf his vision of the circumstances around U.S. President Donald Trump's possible impeachment. “The train will certainly start moving, but how far it will go is a completely different matter. The process will be very slow. I think it is very important to remember the time factor. Impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon lasted almost two years. Impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton lasted almost a year and did not end in success. Thus, it's about long periods of time, and I fear that there will be another round in the dirty public battle between the Republicans and the Democrats that will tear the country apart even further," the expert said.
Hacke recalled that Republicans hold strong positions in the Senate. “We need to wait and see how successful the Republicans will be in playing their tricks to drag out the matter, but in general, of course, the population is divided up to the very top. For us, by European and German standards, it's hard to imagine the Republicans blaming the Democrats for planning the demonstration process, according to the Soviet model, or the president intervening and calling one of the leading diplomats who expected to testify, Ambassador Taylor as 'human scum',” Christian Hacke said.
According to the German political scientist, the Americans remain split over the question of whether Trump should be impeached. “You should not think that everyone supports President Trump’s departure. The country is very divided, and Trump supporters very strongly support him. Until the Republicans remain in the Senate, the impeachment process has little chance,” the expert predicts.
Meanwhile, Hacke recalls that even Democratic Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has long resisted Trump's impeachment, “because she knows the realities in Congress.” However, Pelosi is experiencing increasing pressure in her own party, primarily from left-wing candidates, such as Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren: “And now we see that the candidate who was previously ahead, that is, former Vice President Biden, was compromised because of his son's connection with Ukrainian company. This is one side of the issue.”
The other side of the issue, according to the expert, is that today the Ukraine situation is different from what it was a year ago or nine months ago, when Robert Muller's report was published. “The fact is that about four, five, six witnesses are expected now. And these witnesses will clearly say that Donald Trump unjustifiably froze $400 million in Congressional military aid and put pressure on the Ukrainian president to make Zelensky say that Biden’s son was involved in the corruption case in Ukraine. Such a scenario can be very dangerous for President Trump. This could be the basis for serious allegations, such as high treason, bribery and abuse of power for personal interests,” Christian Hacke believes.
Commenting on the 2020 U.S. presidential election and the influence of the “Ukrainian case” on it, the German political scientist noted: “Biden was so smashed in this conflict so these two ladies, in particular Elizabeth Warren, get much more chances. You can already see it in the polls, the results of which turned upside down. And the way how Biden's son earned his money in Ukraine cannot be called exemplary in ethical terms. And the fact that it was covered by his father, of course, is also problematic. Saying yes to working as a highly paid consultant in dubious foreign companies, while never being in Ukraine and getting all the money in the U.S. - all this made an impression of nepotism and was politically careless. I think that Biden completely failed as a candidate because of this, but it does not necessarily mean that for Trump it will be easier now. At first glance, those women, whom I mentioned, seem to be more inferior opponents in the election campaign, but this remains to be seen. Elizabeth Warren is increasingly gaining greater credibility even among the general public."
