Josef Braml: "Unpredictability factor will be Trump's strong point"

German experts continue to actively comment on the election of Donald Trump as the US president.Political analyst of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) Josef Braml believes that the most important message of Trump's "foreign policy speech" is that the unpredictability factor will be his strength. "In other words, he will instill uncertainty in others. But it can also damage the United States - his statements on NATO in particular. 

If Donald links obligation to provide mutual military assistance within the framework of the alliance with obligation of the allies to pay contributions, he basically cancels the 5th article of NATO Charter. I don't know whether Trump wanted to make Europe understand that we should shoulder a greater burden - even clearer than Obama did it, calling us 'dependents'. Perhaps Trump really thinks even more radically," the expert said. 

"Unlike Obama, Trump does not profess liberal internationalism. He is a supporter of realism, which means that countries have their own interests, their own spheres of influence, which should not be invaded. Perhaps he will make a deal with Putin - he has his own sphere, we have our own. It will no longer have anything to do with rule-based order, to which we are accustomed to, and which we would like to see in Europe," he stressed. Braml is not sure that mutual understanding between the US and Russia in such circumstances would correspond to the interests of those who are still interested in the old European order. "It would be even worse if Trump actually implements steps toward the US isolationism. I hope that we, Germans and Europe, will be able to remind Americans that their international activities hepled not only world order, but also the interests of America itself," he noted.

According to Josef Braml, political realities, which Trump will face after officialy becoming the president, will sober him up. "Many people believe that he will become softer and will continue to behave the way he presented himself in the first victory speech - I don't believe it. But at some point he will face the realities and even have disagreements with his party colleagues in the Congress, if he tries to implement his ambitious economic ideas. In oder to do this, he will have to get the money, and there are a lot of libertarian republicans in the Congress, who don't want the country to allocate money and actively intervene. It will happen in March at the latest, when the upper limit of the national debt will be increased, and we will clearly see the limit. And once again, there will be a great concern in the market, because the political system won't work that way by that time, as many observers in Washington already suggest," he predicts.

"Trump won't be able to rule the country at his own discretion. I think this political system is still dysfunctional, perhaps it is a reflection of discord in the society, and Trump also won't be able to overcome these contradictions. Even Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama failed to achieve results no matter how much he tried," the expert believes.