The world has entered into a period of strong geopolitical turbulence. The threat of unprecedented civilizational confrontation is looming over the planet. It depends on world leaders, what the history of mankind will be in the coming years – will it be clouded by wars or will the desire for peaceful development be stronger? At the same time, few countries in the world can propose their own way out of the crisis. One of them is Kazakhstan, which intends to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2017-2018 in order to to make it easier to implement the developed proposals. The foreign policy initiatives of Kazakhstan in the context of global changes were discussed by the participants of the expert round table, held yesterday at the Historical Faculty of Moscow State University.
The experts acknowledged that Kazakhstan holds a traditionally active position on the international agenda. "The country is the initiator and organizer of many important international formats – from the SCO to the OSCE, from the CICA to the OIC – during which President Nursultan Nazarbayev has taken a number of initiatives to address regional crises. He is also the author of the People's Assembly of Kazakhstan and the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions," the head of strategic planning of the Association of Border Cooperation Alexander Sobyanin reminded. The last speech of Nazarbayev at the 70th UN General Assembly session in New York, as the expert noted, "caused a certain echo in the media and in political circles."
We recall that Nazarbayev used the platform of the UN to promote new concepts of sustainable global development. He urged to unite the efforts of the member states of the UN to address a number of global problems – from the development of a supranational world currency, responsive to the challenges of global sustainable development, to the adoption of a declaration on the establishment of a world free of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the Leader of the Nation proposed transferring the headquarters of the United Nations to Asia and converting the Economic and Social Council of the UN to the Global Development Council, which, in addition to the UN member states, could also include representatives of international financial organizations. Another of his proposals was on the annual transfer of one percent of the defense budget to the Special Fund of the United Nations for sustainable development goals by each state. There is every reason to believe that these initiatives have a great future.
The experts that gathered at Moscow State University noted that not all of the proposed initiatives of Kazakhstan were implemented. There are both subjective and objective reasons for this. Nevertheless, according to Sobyanin, "for fundamental reasons, Kazakhstan is destined to play a more important role than it played in Soviet times, or even now, when we are used to seeing w more dynamic, in economic terms, loyal ally, one of the two main Eurasian allies in it." Expert considers Nazarbayev's initiative on Eurasianism as the most significant, and it has been implemented – in 2015 the project on the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union started. But the implementation of the idea of a Greater Eurasia, which President Nazarbayev mentioned at the UN General Assembly, raises doubts among experts.
However, according to the director of the Institute of Regional Problems, Dmitry Zhuravlev, Kazakhstan can play the role of a "stabilizer" in relations between Russia and the West, just like France and Germany were during the Cold War. "The actions of France and Germany were called a 'discharge' in relations between the great powers. According to this logic, I would also like to consider the initiatives of Kazakhstan. Not just as independent initiatives, but as a lever which can influence the situation from the perspective of the third angle of the triangle," Zhuravlev said. The expert noted that even if not all the initiatives are always completed, they "create a credit history." According to him, Kazakhstan and Nazarbayev personally have credibility. "Even despite the fact that Kazakhstan is not the most powerful economy, not the most powerful army, its credibility is great. Perhaps it is incomparably greater than the economic power which another state has," Zhuravlev noted.
An expert on Central Asia, political analyst Arkady Dubnov, supported his colleague, saying that Kazakhstan, "given the only 25-year history of its statehood (we will celebrate this date on December 16), it is an established state, in fact, a more flattering definition is fully applicable to its position – a regional power." "And, of course, the personality of President Nursultan Nazarbayev – an irreplaceable leader, who has affirmed his authority in the world, has made his country recognized," Dubnov stressed. At the same time, he believes that all the image projects today are pushed to the background, giving way to the most important thing – the fight against terrorism and Islamic extremism. "This is where Nazarbayev can and should demonstrate all of the resources and ambitions of a regional leader in one of the most dangerous areas in the world. And references to the value of the central world religions that Astana wants to look like will not help here – today, these are nothing more than rhetorical exercises. It seems that it is really time to create a forum of Islamic authorities, who could speak on behalf of the global Islamic Ummah, to call a spade a spade: that ISIS is a terrible perversion of Islam, and the leaders of ISIS must be cursed on behalf of the global Islamic forum," the expert believes. According to Dubnov, perhaps this task looks naive, but Nazarbayev will be able to handle it, "if he intends to remain in modern history as a peacemaker."
"There is another role of Kazakhstan and its leader, which is already in great demand today – it is to consolidate the efforts of the Central Asian countries to counter threats from Afghanistan. The more clearly the trend of rejection of proposals for such assistance from Russia by some countries of the region is, the more I see such a need... because of concerns about the loss of some sovereignty as a result of the strengthening of the Russian military presence in the region. Such work requires fine diplomatic tuning," Dubnov stressed.
A researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Stanislav Pritchin, evaluating the efficacy of diplomacy of Kazakhstan, mentioned its fairly high level. "The tasks that President Nursultan Nazarbayev sets for the Foreign Ministry are usually implemented. It happened to the chairmanship of the republic in the OSCE in 2010 and the holding of the summit of this organization, the first in many years. Another issue is related to Syria. Kazakhstan is recognized at all levels as Russia's closest ally and strategic partner in the international arena. Just like Moscow, Astana acknowledges ISIS as a challenge for Kazakhstan, even in view of the fact that people from Kazakhstan are fighting on the side of the Islamists. In this situation, the position of Astana is not entirely clear, since it still did not support the operation in Syria officially, which, firstly, is directed against the common threat and, secondly, takes place strictly within the legal norms and does not contradict international law," Pritchin said.
The theme of ISIS was continued by the head of the Department of Central Asia of the Institute of CIS Countries, Andrey Grozin, who noted that all the quoted numbers of citizens who went to war in Syria or Iraq from Central Asian countries are extremely relative. They are not dangerous to the region and even with the limited resources in all Central Asian countries, the potential of their special services will be enough to neutralize these challenges. According to Grozin, economic shocks may become one of the challenges for Kazakhstan, because they create a very serious element of risk for the internal social stability and for preservation of the unity of the elite and the unity of society. The deterioration of the economic situation, on which the leadership of Kazakhstan has limited influence, is the main challenge. "It's not ISIS, but the situation in the world commodity markets that creates a situation in which Astana will have to promptly solve challenges and respond to greater risks," Grozin said.
The economic risks were assessed by the chief researcher of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Aza Mihranyan, who recalled that Nursultan Nazarbayev openly warned the public about the approaching economic crisis. Astana has taken measures to mitigate the consequences. According to her, Kazakhstan is different from all post Soviet countries by the comprehensive strategies and aims of the movement in the economy. The country implements two programs 'Nurly Zhol' (Shining Path) and the plan of the nation 'Five institutional reforms.' According to the expert, by evenly positioning and aligning relations in the economic sphere with many partners, the quality of the economy of Kazakhstan has not changed, its structure and its competitiveness will be based on the export of energy resources. Kazakhstan is destined to exist in those conditions, and to participate in that fight which exists today. That is why Kazakhstan will have to intensify its political initiatives. Astana will not be able to remain neutral on many issues of geopolitics for a long time. The issues of multidirectionism of Kazakhstan can be used through the partnership in EAEU as an economic bridge, where one could soften the fall and increase achievements, Mihranyan stressed.
Summing up the results of the conference, the senior researcher at the Analytical Center of MGIMO, Leonid Gusev, noted that the role of the UN and other international organizations has been minimized: "It started 20 years ago in different parts of the globe. If you remember Africa – the war in Congo, massacres between the Hutu and Tutsi tribes ... Was the UN able to prevent it? No! The war in Iraq — the UN was unable to prevent it. The war in Syria – no. The initiatives of individual politicians, unfortunately or fortunately, can have a good decisive word."
