Maxim Shevchenko: "The old map of the Middle East is gone forever"

Recently, the work of the radical terrorist organization Islamic State has become one of the most discussed topics of international security. The editor-in-chief of 'Kavpolit', Maxim Shevchenko, spoke about the changes in the Middle East that have occurred with the emergence of this group.

According to Shevchenko, "we are dealing with a black cat in a dark room, because it is one of the metaphors for the description of our methodology for understanding what is happening in the Middle East, that in fact we know almost nothing about what's going on and about this formation, which called itself Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIS, called itself Islamic State, now some call it the caliphate. There is a man, they put forth as caliph in Baghdad, a theologian from Baghdad, who went through the American prisons and who is their political leader."

"The information we have about this is pretty small, there are almost no journalists there. During all this time there have been, in my opinion, only two or three journalists, one German journalist and a couple of Arab journalists. Mainly we know about Islamic State’s informational video fakes, there are some videos that are thrown on the Internet, where some men dressed in black cut off journalists' heads in Libya, or somewhere else," Shevchenko noted.

He is sure that it is impossible to judge what is happening, through information channels: "I think that the intelligence understands what they are dealing with. And an indirect reflection of this understanding in particular sounded last autumn in the evaluation of Islamic Dtate by Vladimir Putin, in which he called it a complex phenomenon, which includes former employees and military units of Saddam Hussein’s Ba'ath party, and part of al-Qaeda, which has been leading the fight against the spaces of the Islamic world with the Americans and NATO for decades, and a new generation of people who want to join what they find important for them, what the world perceives as international terrorism."

Maxim Shevchenko, in this regard, is concerned about two components: "The first is the main component – what will happen to the Middle East? And the second is could those Russian citizens of different ages who are travelling through Turkey to the territory of Syria, and somehow joining the combat units of what is called Islamic State be called a threat?”

"I believe that a Sunni state will be established anyway, that old map of the Middle East is gone forever, you can forget about it. Iraq, Syria. Lebanon may remain, although it is questionable. Will Hezbollah be able to hold territory that they have never controlled after the heavy fighting and heavy losses of the past months, the territory of the north of Lebanon, Tripoli, Sunni native territory. I think that Hezbollah is going to have many problems, because they are coming from all sides. So I think that the boundaries of these states have changed. In fact, we are de facto dealing with an independent Kurdistan, which after the recent Turkish elections is one step away from recognition on the territory of Iraq. The visas of two samples have already been issued. In fact, if you receive a visa through the Kurds, you enter the territory of Iraq, and then on this visa you cannot enter Baghdad, because, in fact, there are possible options.

So, I think that if a Kurdish state will be established, and it is obvious to me that the so-called international community has taken this course, this is an unfair decision in relation to the huge number of Kurdish people, who for decades fought for their rights, including political rights. In particular, it also solves some problems for Turkey, maybe quite serious ones. Then why can't a Sunni state on territory of Iraq and Syria be created?" Maxim Shevchenko asks.