The escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh vividly outlined the attitude of the countries of the post-Soviet space towards the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as well as the policy of some interstate organizations. Belarus recently adopted a resolution prohibiting the participation of the armed forces in foreign military operations at the legislative level. "This will never happen," the Defense Minister of Belarus Andrei Ravkov said. According to him, Belarus "considers no one as an enemy, but it wouldn't give an inch of its land, using all forces and means." This provision is fixed in the new military doctrine of Belarus, which was approved by the country's parliament on April 4, 2016. Thus, Minsk has once again confirmed that it would not interfere in armed conflicts, wherever they may be, including in Nagorno-Karabakh, where one of the conflict sides is the CSTO ally of Belarus.
Supporting its decision, Minsk called on Baku and Yerevan to show restraint and strictly observe the ceasefire, and the Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei stressed the need for settling the conflict at the negotiating table in compliance with international law. "Some experts have always doubted the real willingness of Belarus to take part, for example, in the defense of the CSTO member states. The new military doctrine of the country will only strengthen such opinions," the Director of the Analytical Center of the Institute of International Studies, Doctor of Political Science Andrey Kazantsev, told Vestnik Kavkaza.
The Central Asian countries have already expressed doubt that in the case of external or internal aggression the CSTO will take an observer position, as in the case of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. "The CSTO Secretariat is very closely monitoring the situation which has developed on the contact line. The position of the CSTO member states on this issue was stated many times – a ceasefire and a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the continuation of which is fraught with destabilization of the situation in the entire Caucasus region. One thing is clear: everybody needs only peace," the CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha said.
But it is not about only Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the director of the Risk Assessment Group (Kazakhstan), Dosim Satpayev, the resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has showed once again that the post-Soviet space is moving towards a dangerous phase of destabilization. "Real and potential interstate conflicts of different levels and scales have already surrounded Kazakhstan, and geopolitical turbulence could be a threat to the national security of the republic, including in terms of military aggression. Therefore, the issue of the combat capability of the Kazakh armed forces remains urgent," Satpayev noted.
However, according to Andrey Kazantsev, this does not mean that every CSTO country will protect only itself. "There are collective formats of forces within the framework of the Central Asian region, there are various mechanisms within the CSTO. Even if Belarus refuses to send its forces to these formats in the case of the invasion of militants from the territory of Afghanistan to Tajikistan, including those linked to Al-Qaeda and Daesh [organizations banned in the Russian Federation], then Russia and other Central Asian countries will do it. The mechanisms were worked out in the course of various exercises. In addition, Russia and the Central Asian region are interconnected. Therefore, Belarus is a little away from all this, it is situated in a completely different region," Andrey Kazantsev said.
The CSTO position is clear. The CSTO member states have own relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. If Armenia is the CSTO member, the EEU member and a strategic ally of Moscow, Azerbaijan is a major economic partner. It's unlikely that Nazarbayev and Lukashenko wants to support Armenia now. Especially since they didn't really want it to become the EEU member. But to say no to Armenia would mean to jeopardize the integration associations. As for Baku, Azerbaijan is a brotherly and friendly country for Kazakhstan, a key partner in the Caucasus region. Recently it has become the southern 'gateway' for the transportation of its goods coming from Turkey. The Kazakh segment in social networks was painted in colors of Azerbaijani flag in the first day of the resumption of conflict. This suggests that the Muslims from Kazakhstan and the whole Central Asia will not go against their co-religionists.
Belarus has its own interest in Azerbaijan. It was Baku which didn't allow at a very challenging time for Minsk to start a new gas war between fraternal Slavic peoples, the Russians and the Belarusians. During the years of independence Azerbaijan has always been a reliable and very useful partner for the post-Soviet countries, one of the first countries to support Russia during the announcement of the sanctions.
For Russia, the situation is not so clear. Both Baku and Yerevan said that the keys to the Karabakh problem are in Moscow. Kremlin doesn't benefit from the increased tension in the region. Moscow cannot offer Baku or Yerevan anything except the cease-fire today. And its position is clear - choosing a side of the conflict will put an end to the good relations with the other side. This is especially significant in the Azerbaijani direction. Despite the fact that the strategic alliance with Armenia is stated and documented at the highest level, Russia does not want to lose such a partner as Azerbaijan. Loss of Azerbaijan is fraught with the loss of the entire South Caucasus. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh are unequal replacement of Azerbaijan and Georgia have already chosen a future alliance with the West, especially with NATO. Moscow, apparently realizing it, strongly demonstrates 'equal closeness' of both conflict sides. In particular, the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, completing his visit to Yerevan within the EEU line, will visit Baku without delay.
