Last Saturday, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan presented 100 facts about “New Armenia” at the press conference in Kapan. He reported about the increase in tax revenues to the state budget and highlighted good rates of economic growth. Head of the government answered almost all questions of the journalists, including the most unpleasant ones associated with the Karabakh conflict settlement. Although Prime Minister was in good mood, his rhetoric indicated that significant and qualitative changes in the negotiation process shouldn't be expected in the near future.
One of the features of Pashinyan’s policy is that there's almost no transparency in his negotiations on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It's extremely difficult to obtain reliable information about the course of negotiations, or at least about discussion of the Karabakh conflict, since Prime Minister’s office prevents any information leaks. Any "revolution" needs an incentive that will push people to action or even attract huge interest. A year and a half ago, Pashinyan promised to revolutionize negotiation process, and the lack of progress was stably associated with stagnant policy of the previous regime.
Right now Pashinyan prefers to focus public attention on the will of Armenian community of Karabakh, and also tirelessly emphasizes his non-interference in the political processes of the self-proclaimed regime. Armenian Prime Minister doesn't have a clear program which he could use to restart negotiation process and at the same time protect himself from criticism. Pashinyan cannot boast of any achievements in the conflict resolution, so now he is trying once again to criticize previous administration.
However, the peculiarity of Nikol Pashinyan's current rhetoric is that he merges criticism of Serzh Sargsyan with criticism of imperfection of generally accepted principles of the Karabakh conflict peaceful settlement, which Pashinyan has already actively criticized in November-December of last year. It's symbolic that in his criticism Pashinyan uses the term “heritage”, meaning “problems” that, in his opinion, present-day Armenia and Karabakh faced in the process of legitimizing occupation, and the figure of Serzh Sargsyan becomes synonymous with these problems.
Pashinyan creates new antagonistic images, through which he tries to provoke the elite of the occupation regime to abandon the diplomatic "heritage" of Sargsyan, thereby leading her to the "necessary" conclusion. In Karabakh, elections of the head of the occupation regime will be held this year. Pashinyan actually sets the guidelines for cooperation between him and the future local elite during the upcoming change of generations of the occupying power. By the way, two current and most likely candidates for the post of head of the self-proclaimed Karabakh, ex-"prime minister" of the unrecognized republic Araik Harutyunyan and "minister of foreign affairs" of the occupation regime Masis Mayilyan, have already responded to the peculiar appeal of Pashinyan.
Like the previous political elite of Armenia, Pashinyan does not hesitate to deliberately excite society, inspiring him with fear of the so-called surrender of territories. The authorities are trying to convince the Armenian public that maintaining the occupation of the territories around Karabakh is a matter of national security, which for a quarter of a century has been no less significant task than overcoming the economic blockade. But the blockade is caused just by the ultimatum position of the Armenian side.
Despite the fact that the occupation did not provide Armenia with any economic development opportunities, with the exception of a number of business projects of certain oligarchic circles of the republic, it is still used as an ideological marker, thanks to which Armenian politicians determine who is “their own” and who is not.
The current, as well as the previous, political elite does not pay attention to the fact that its tribune rhetoric can be very different from that which is heard during official meetings as part of the negotiation process. That is enough for the current regime that the bottom line of the Armenian inhabitants is a feeling of insecurity, danger and helplessness, which is offset by confidence in the legality of the occupation.
Pashinyan fears an escalation of the conflict, since his position among the ruling elite of the occupation regime is extremely precarious. The prime minister cannot boldly rely on the military of the occupation regime like Sargsyan. He does not have a strong position among the Armenian security forces.
Prime Minister still has a lengthy trial with the leaders of the Karabakh clan, Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharian, as well as the growing confrontation with the Chairman of the Constitutional Court (CC) of Armenia Hrayr Tovmasyan. It is not known whether the Armenian Prime Minister will have the strength to cope with his counterparties. But it is obvious that Pashinyan will continue to try to nullify the negotiation process, hoping that neither Azerbaijan nor the OSCE Minsk Group will agree to this. For political maneuvering, the prime minister needs time, which he most likely does not have.
