The killing of the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC's) Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani as a result of a U.S. air strike ordered by President Donald Trump was a demonstration of Washington’s hostile stance on Iran's policy in Iraq. Tehran has long sought to establish a pro-Iranian government in Iraq, which, since the U.S.-led invasion and Saddam Hussein's overthrow, has plunged into the chaos of civil war for many years, with the Iran-Iraq border becoming a source of threat to Iran.
Meanwhile, it was Saddam Hussein's overthrow that opened up wide opportunities for Tehran to strengthen its own positions in neighboring Iraq, defining its strategy for many years to come. Since than Iran has begun to actively support and consolidate the fragmented Shiite opposition. Starting in the second half of 2000s, Qasem Soleimani's name, who actually became the conductor of Iran's policy in Iraq and oversaw contacts with the opposition, manifested itself.
In 2008, in a letter to Commander of the U.S. Central Command David Petraeus, the commander of elite Quds Force openly announced that it's him who controls the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, including diplomatic contacts. All these years, Washington has been well aware that Iran's elite power structures are making efforts to establish control over Iraq, with Qasem Soleimani being the central figure. Not a single supply of weapons, not a single secret meeting of Shiite leaders was held without Soleimani's approval.
His name is associated with successes in fighting ISIS (banned in Russia) in Syria and the Iraqi provinces neighboring Iran, which helped shape Iraq’s political course. About 45 of the 60 well-known Shiite militias of Iraq are subordinate to Tehran. Much of the credit for achieving these rights goes to Soleimani. Moreover, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) formed of Shiite militias played a decisive role in the defense of Baghdad, including in the battles of Baiji, Ramadi and Fallujah. Fearing that if Damascus is captured and the Syrian army is defeated, the number of terrorists could significantly increase at the expense of Syrians, Soleimani adjusted joint operations of the PMF and IRGC forces, including in Syria. Given that the backbone of the terrorist organization was composed of former officers of Saddam Hussein's army, Tehran rightly feared a terrorist incursion into Iran.
Iran has become an active participant in Iraqi political life, not only in the military, but also in its economic and cultural spheres. Iraq has the fifth largest oil reserves in the region, with most of the fields located on the western border. Through joint projects in the oil and gas industry, Tehran is striving to influence the price of "black gold", overcoming its trade and energy isolation, and is already refining Iraqi oil. This year, the Iranian authorities plan to hold more than 40 trade fairs in Iraq and ease visa regulations for Iranian and Iraqi businessmen. It is also planned this year to discuss a promising project for the construction of a railway from Iran's Kermanshah to Iraq's Basra, which can optimize the Iraqi transport system by combining it with Iran. All these joint steps are aimed at eliminating American influence, towards which the fragile Iraqi government is being persistently pushed by Tehran. It is obvious that the leadership of the Quds Force plays one of the leading roles in this process.
The killing of Soleimani will not cause a war between the U.S. and Iran, but will mark the beginning of another round of escalation in relations between Tehran and Washington. Tehran has long adhered to the tactics of maintaining tension in Iraq and Afghanistan, due to which the United States could not devote all its attention to Iran. After Qasem Soleimani's death, the leadership of the Islamic Republic was forced to look for a worthy alternative, since the general had leverage over the Iraqi political system. General Esmail Ghaani was appointed new Commander of the Quds Force, and the Iraqi parliament has voted to end the presence of any foreign troops in the country.
