Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in fierce fighting in Karabakh since September 27. The Armenian side suffers losses, although, in violation of international law, it has deployed a colossal amount of weapons in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. Unlike in most previous clashes over this Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory, the present conflict has involved heavy and sophisticated weaponry.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, the Azerbaijani military has all along had the upper hand on the battlefield thanks to the employment of Israeli- and Turkish-produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), long-range missiles and air-defense systems. The Azerbaijani forces made particularly effective use of Israeli drones including the Harop (loitering-munition) and the long-endurance Heron tactical UAV; more recently, the country also acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drones armed with four MAM-L laser-guided smart munitions, developed by Roketsan. The deployment of vast numbers of combat UAVs above the battlefield has significantly boosted Azerbaijan’s tactical gains, while limiting potential human casualties.
In contrast, Armenia’s air-defense systems, consisting mostly of Russian-made S-300, OSA and TOR surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems have repeatedly proved to be glaringly vulnerable and ineffective against Azerbaijan’s Israeli and Turkish UAVs. The most significant weakness in the Russian-produced defense systems appears to be their radars’ inability to track these advanced, high-accuracy drones. However, tactical innovations on the part of Azerbaijan have additionally undermined the Armenian air-defense units’ performance.
In the first days of the war, President Ilham Aliyev publicly acknowledged that the use of UAVs on the front lines “empowers us”. Yet Azerbaijan’s success comes not just from advanced technology but also superior tactics.
More broadly, Azerbaijan adopted a new war strategy: instead of a traditional blitzkrieg, its forces have relied on intensive and accurate artillery strikes targeting Armenian fortified defense lines. This approach reduces human casualties and overcomes the vulnerability of extended supply lines.
Unlike its prevalent reliance on drones, Azerbaijani use of attack helicopters during the current conflict has been rather limited. Instead, massive ground attacks have been conducted by Azerbaijan’s T-72 (Aslan modification) and T-90 main battle tanks as well as self-propelled howitzers, like the Czech-produced DANA (152-millimeter) and Russian-made 2S1 Gvozdika (122-millimeter) systems.
In addition to advanced UAVs purchased from both Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijani forces have actively employed Israeli air-defense systems like the Barak-8 and Iron Dome to prevent missile bombardments launched from Armenian territory against the strategically important city of Mingachevir (Daily Sabah, October 4). And on October 3, Azerbaijan’s military deployed the highly accurate long-range ballistic missile system LORA, acquired from Israel in 2018.
To date, Azerbaijani forces have advanced on the Lachin district and have been shelling the strategically important land corridor linking Karabakh with Armenia. Baku has also seized Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan and several settlements in Gubatly district, thus securing full control over the Iranian-Azerbaijani border for the first time in nearly 30 years. Azerbaijan’s military is now closing in on the important cultural center of Shusha and the Karabakh capital of Khakhendi. Since the start of the clashes, Armenian forces suffered significant losses of military vehicles and weaponry hit by Azerbaijani UAVs. According to data released on October 23, Armenia lost 241 battle tanks, 4 S-300s and 2 Scud (Elbrus) tactical missile systems; while Azerbaijani troops captured 39 tanks and 24 BMPs.
As long as outside powers physically stay out of the conflict, Azerbaijan’s battlefield momentum is likely to remain unchanged. And this means that any future ceasefire will only endure on Baku’s terms.
