In the fall, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will decide their future fate. On October 4, Kyrgyzstan will elect a parliament, and on October 11, Tajikistan will hold the next presidential elections. Both the SCO member states, the CSTO and the CIS have a difficult political landscape, and therefore stability is important not only for these states, but also for the region as a whole.
Tajikistan, with a population of 9.1 million, goes to the presidential elections on October 11, a month earlier than planned. According to the vice-speaker of the country's lower house of parliament, Mahmadali Vatanzoda, the postponement of the elections is due to the fact that October is a relatively warm month, and in late autumn and winter access to mountainous regions will be difficult due to cold weather and heavy rains. The coronavirus also influenced the choice of the date: the epidemiological situation may worsen in the cold season and the introduction of restrictive measures is possible.
The second innovation concerns the age threshold for admission of candidates. In a constitutional referendum in 2016, it was reduced from 35 to 30 years. Some experts believe that the decision was made so that the son of the current President Emomali Rahmon, 32-year-old Rustam, could run for office. However, it is currently unknown whether he will take part in the presidential elections.
Who will compete with Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled the country since 1992? By law, parties and social movements must submit their candidates by September 15th. The first to register as a candidate was Rustam Latifzoda, who heads the Agrarian Party of Tajikistan. A candidate dealing with environmental issues in the republic is unlikely to receive broad support from the population traditionally loyal to the current leader.
The second candidate for the presidency was approved just a few days ago: Abdukhalim Gaffarov will participate in the elections from the Socialist Party of Tajikistan, who, if he wins, promises to build a metro in Dushanbe and pay attention to the development of Tajikistan's natural resources. In the last elections, Ghaffarov received only 1.5% of the vote, and it is obvious that this year the results will not be much better.
The main intrigue is whether Emomali Rahmon himself will run. Traditionally, support for the current leader is great. It is believed that he managed to stop the bloody civil war and establish close relations with Russia. Most likely, on October 11, many residents of Tajikistan will still vote for 67-year-old Emomali Rahmon, a traditional figure on the country's political Olympus, and only then a gradual transfer of power to the young Rustam, who continues to strengthen his position, will be organized. If a smooth transition of power takes place and nothing intervenes in the course of events, the country's political course is unlikely to change in the near future, guaranteeing a stable strategic partnership with Russia, deepening economic ties within the SCO, as well as possible accession to the EAEU.
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In Kyrgyzstan, on the eve of the October 4 parliamentary elections, the situation is extremely ambiguous. The difficult epidemiological situation (see "VK" Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections in a pandemic) is aggravated by uncertainty about which political forces will take part in the elections. Of the 44 parties that previously announced their desire to participate in the elections, only 22 held congresses on time, however, according to the country's Central Election Commission, none of them has yet submitted the necessary documents for registration.
Traditional participants present unexpected surprises: the party in power, SDPK, has refused to participate in the elections. However, the main characters of the political association still will not stand aside: some of them will be represented in the Birimdik party (Torobay Zulpukarov, Azamat Arapbayev, Aida Kasymalieva (vice speaker of parliament), Evgenia Storokova and Marat Amankulov), and some - as part of "Mekenim Kyrgyzstan" (the names of the candidates included in the list have not yet been announced). The favorite is the Birimdik party, in whose ranks the president's brother, deputy Asylbek Jeenbekov, will run for elections.
Birimdik, Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, Zamandash and Kyrgyzstan are considered parties loyal to the current government, while Ata Meken, Bir Bol and Butun Kyrgyzstan (united with Ak Shumkar) call themselves the opposition. "Onuguu-Progress" refused to participate in the elections, although it is represented in the current parliament.
A feature of the current party lists is the presence of a large number of young politicians, on whom the stake is made due to the need for reforms. According to the analyst Akylbek Sariev, 30-40% of the former deputy composition will probably get to the new parliament, and the rest will be new persons. Experts believe that the main struggle will unfold between the parties "Birimdik" and "Mekenim Kyrgyzstan", although according to the poll of the "Common Cause" foundation, the overwhelming majority of the respondents in Kyrgyzstan, 82.3%, do not know who to vote for.
The country's political parties will have a month (from September 4 to October 3) to present programs and interest voters, who believe that the new convocation of parliament should solve many social and economic problems, including eliminating corruption and reducing unemployment.
