Near Tbilisi, the former Russian military base Vaziani is hosting the unprecedented military exercises NoblePartner-2016 with the participation of the US, the UK and Georgian military units. The unprecedented nature of these exercises is determined not only by the number of troops involved in the maneuvers (1300 soldiers and officers, including 650 Americans, 150 British and 500 Georgians), but also obvious differences from all previous exercises, which were held in Georgia under the auspices of the United States or NATO.
First of all, the participation of the British contingent. Tbilisi press already writes about the Anglo-Saxon and Georgian cooperation in the field of defense and security in the Caucasus region. Moreover, NoblePartner-2016 is held on the basis of the bilateral Georgian-American Charter on strategic cooperation, though their officially announced goal is the preparation of Georgian troops for participation in the NATO Rapid Response Forces, which Georgia joined last year.
Secondly, the quality and quantity of forces and means used in the exercises by the Americans is growing with each year. If during NoblePartner-2015 Americans involved the BMP M2 Bradley, then this time, they brought dozens of main battle tanks (MBT) M1A2 Abrams by sea from Bulgaria, they are considered the main rival of the Russian T90A Vladimir. (Right now, about 50 Vladimir tanks are stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia – just 20 kilometers away from the Vaziani base, where NoblePartner-2016 is held). Thus, for the first time ever, American tanks have not only appeared in the Caucasus, but they directly oppose their Russian "rivals" for the first time.
Thirdly, never before have the US military and diplomats spoken about the geopolitical goals of the exercises so frankly. They go far beyond the goals of preparation of Georgian units. "The main goal of these exercises is to test how quickly the US military vehicles and soldiers will come to the Caucasus if it will be necessary," commander of the US Army in Europe, General Ben Hodges stated, announcing maneuvers involving the relocation of US heavy weaponry.
At the opening ceremony of Noble Partner-2016, the Deputy US Ambassador to Georgia Nikolas Berliner repeated the words of a US General: "We check how quickly we can strengthen the security of this region." Diplomats, as is known, never make random statements, knowing that their every word will be examined "with a pencil in hand."
Moreover, Berliner's statement was made after a protest by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Commenting on the exercises in Vaziani, the Russian diplomatic department directly accused the United States, Great Britain and NATO of "attempting to use the territory of Georgia" and destabilizing regional security. The statement, posted on the Foreign Ministry's website, contains references to the situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone and the outbreak of military hostilities in the territories occupied by the Armenian troops.
This fact once again highlights the issue of the need for a speedy fair resolution of the long-standing conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh as a measure of strengthening the Russian geopolitical position in the region, where Moscow's influence is getting weaker due to the apparent delay in resolving the problem of restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. As an expert of the GHN information agency Mikheil Getsadze stated in an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza, "the best way for Moscow to compete with the Americans in the South Caucasus under the current conditions, when American troops are basically gradually settling in Georgia, and when there is a Russian base in Armenia, is to demonstrate the ability to fairly resolve the problem of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and compliance with the rights of citizens of all nationalities." According Getsadze, in this case, Russia will be able to "bring not only Armenia, but also Azerbaijan to its side." "If in the near future Moscow will limit itself to attempts to preserve the status quo, than it will lose Azerbaijan, which may begin to look for alternatives, including in the security field. Moscow certainly considers such a possibility. Perhaps it is evidenced by a probable visit of President Putin to Baku and Yerevan," the expert believes.
The very near future will show whether these calculations will be correct, but recent developments in the region indicate the acceleration of processes that can have a long-term impact on the balance of geopolitical forces in the region. The economic, military and political influence of Azerbaijan, which still preserves "a geopolitical neutrality", allows observers to make an unambiguous conclusion: only the global center that has Azerbaijan on its side, which is rightfully considered to be a main regional player in the South Caucasus, will be able to gain a foothold in the Caucasus region.
