Uzbekistan has committed tentatively to buy electricity produced at a hydropower facility in neighboring Tajikistan in a marked change of posture from the days when Tashkent staunchly opposed the very construction of the plant, Eurasianet writes. Under the terms of the memorandum of understanding, which was signed on June 2, on the first day of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s visit to Uzbekistan, the electricity would be delivered from the Roghun plant over the summer months, when hydroelectric power generation peaks.
Details on the volume of electricity and prices are to be considered in a separate sales agreement which is expected to be signed before the end of the year. Officials have said a 10-year contract is envisioned. Uzbekistan already buys electricity from Tajikistan, which exported 2.5 billion kilowatts hours of power total in 2021. Of those exports, Afghanistan bought around 1.3 billion kilowatt hours and paid $55 million. Uzbekistan was given more preferential rates, having paid Tajikistan $23 million for 1.1 billion kilowatt hours of electricity.
Under the rule of the late President Islam Karimov, who died in 2016, Uzbekistan was adamantly opposed to construction of the Roghun hydroelectric dam. Tashkent objected that the dam would compromise flows of irrigation waters and could pose an existential threat in the event of an earthquake. The Tajiks insisted that the dam was designed to be resistant to seismic activity. A safety study of the projected 335-meter dam published by the World Bank in 2014 appeared to take Tajikistan’s side in finding that the construction would not pose risks of the order indicated by Uzbekistan.
The report also dwelled, however, on the need to mitigate the fallout of a reduction of summer river flows to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The rapidly changing demography of Uzbekistan has made the need to address the question of food security and the ability to reliably grow adequate volumes of crops only more pressing. The country’s population was around 27 million in 2007, when Tajikistan revived the Soviet-devised Roghun project in earnest, but that number has since grown to around 35 million.
Indeed, it is likely that same trend that has forced a rethink from Uzbekistan, since demand for electricity is also increasing rapidly. If Roghun is ever completed as intended, it will produce up 3.6 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. That would be enough to provide for Tajikistan’s own needs and leave vast amounts more for export.
Construction on the hydroelectric plant began in October 2016 and at least two of the six projected generating units are up and running. Progress on the project appears to have slowed down, however, amid limited cash flows. The Tajik government, which fully owns the plant, is typically highly secretive about how much progress it is making on construction.
The stakes for creating a reliable regional system for sharing power resources was illustrated in dramatic fashion in late January, when entire swathes of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan experienced power failures lasting up to several days in some areas. Uzbek energy officials attributed the blackout to a technical fault on Kazakhstan’s grid, which is linked in a Soviet-vintage energy grid to its neighbors to the south.
This power agreement only serves to underline the extent to which relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have improved since the death of Karimov, who was by default suspicious and hostile toward his country’s neighbors. On June 3, Rahmon, the Tajik leader, signed a joint declaration with his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, committing them to “strengthen the eternal friendship and alliance” between their nations. “Tajikistan is a close neighbor, a true friend and a time-tested reliable strategic partner,” Mirziyoyev was quoted as saying by his press service.
Fully 11 bilateral agreements were signed during Rahmon’s two-day visit. On the eve of the presidents’ meeting, contracts worth a total of $1 billion were signed among companies from the two countries.
