On September 26, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke about the future of the European Union and challenges it faces. Many observers called his speech revolutionary. Right now, Macron addmits, the EU has become too slow, weak and inefficient. There are a lot of interesting points in proposals of French leader, which he voiced during his speech at Sorbonne.
Although many of them have been discussed for several years already, this is the first time a specific package of measures received such open support from Paris. The following points should be highlighted:
1. "Budget revolution," after which eurozone countries will create a unified budget. It should be financed through taxes on large internet concerns and climate protection. In the future, contributions from budgets of the EU member states are also expected.
2. Decreasing the number of European commissioners from 28 to 15. Head of France proposes to elect half of the European deputies through international (pan-European) lists by 2019 elections to the European Parliament.
3. Even closer integration with Germany - until complete mutual integration of the two countries' markets by 2024.
4. Common European policy on refugees. In particular, Macron proposes to create an institution that will monitor refugee issue and adopt European program, which will finance their integration and education.
5. Formation of the EU border police service, as well as more active deportation of refugees that were denied asylum.
6. Implementation of long-discussed idea of creating the European prosecutor's office, as well as creation of the European special services academy.
7. Creation of the European Union military with a unified defense budget. French president called for the development of a common defense strategy until 2020.
8. Foundation of 20 European universities until 2024 that will issue European diplomas, harmonization of educational systems in the European schools. All EU citizens under the age of 25 must receive opportunity to study and work in any other EU country for six months.
There's no doubt that Emmanuel Macron raised topics that are vital for Europe and is absolutely right that the EU is far from perfect - in its current form, the organization is extremely bureaucratic and ineffective. Ultimately, this hurts the "European idea" itself, which is seen in strengthening of Euroskeptics' positions. But how realistic is it to implement his proposals, taking into account emerging internal political situation in Germany?
Of course, the fact that his speech was made a day after the announcement of final result of the German elections is no coincidence. Right now there are tense negotiations in Berlin about the establishment of a ruling coalition between CDU/CSU, Free Democrats and Greens. This coalition format, called "Jamaica", is the only possible one, since Social Democrats refused to continue "big coalition" with CDU/CSU and decided to play role in the opposition camp.
However, "Jamaica" is an extremely inconvenient option to implement Macron's plans. He initially hoped that ruling coalition, which includes Christian Democrats headed by Angela Merkel and Social Democrats headed by Martin Schultz, will participate. He was least intersted in the current scenario, when Free Democrats led by Christian Lindner will be in the government. They are completely against the idea of creating European budget. European press published Macron's words that if liberals will reach German government, then he will be a "political corpse". The thing is that Macron's electoral campaign in France was largely based on his promises to reform the European Union, and it is necessary to show real successes to voters for his political survival.
As for financial policy, it will be difficult for Macron to get along with Free Democrats. Meanwhile, Germany's Free Democrats insist on receiving Finance Minister post, and they are likely to achieve their goal. This is indirectly evidenced by resignation of one of the most authoritative ministers of Merkel's team, Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), who will now be the President of Bundestag. Member of Free Democrats Presidium Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has already criticized Macron's plans to establish common European budget. "French President relies too much on the state and new taxes. Europe won't become stronger by opening more chests. It will only hinder serious budget policy. Europe's problem is not a shortage of funds, its a lack of reforms," German liberal believes.
According to the expert of the German Council on Foreign Relations, Claire Demesmay, Chancellor Angela Merkel also won't like Macron's revolutionary proposals. Her European policy is much more cautious and moderate, compared to her French partner. At the same time, Berlin won't be able to completely ignore these. There is no doubt that his ideas will be discussed in the framework of coalition talks between CDU/CSU, Free Democrats and Greens. It is obvious that Macron expected this when he made such speech immediately after elections.
It is likely that future ruling coalition of Germany will agree with some of his proposals, where parties have common interest. First of all, it will likely be creation of common European defense fund, a border police and prosecutor's office to fight terrorism. Other parts of Macron's program have to wait - like the creation of eurozone countries budget. However, even partial success will be satisfy Macron, since he will have a chance to become a leader who moved the EU from the dead point of political stagnation of recent years.
