By the middle of the 21st century China will become the world's leading power. This will happen if decisions made at the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which was held in Beijing, will be implemented. Russia should learn from its neighbor's strategic vision, from the way it's planning its own future without paying attention to others. As "Free Press" writes in an article "Comrade Xi showed Russian Federation how to develop without trying to please the US", in his speech at the congress, head of the CPC Xi Jinping promised "the victory of socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era." According to him, by 2050, China will turn into a "rich, strong, democratic, harmonious, civilized, modernized socialist state." As for the international arena, China "will continue active efforts to ensure global development and support the world order."
Political line, announced by Xi Jingping, was added to the charter of the CCP. This has only happened twice in the history of China: during the era of Mao Zedong and after the death of Deng Xiaoping. Now opponents of "comrade Xi", if there will be any, will have to oppose the entire Communist Party of China and its 90 million members. Xi Jinping has five years to begin the implementation of announced plans. Then, at he will be replaced by a representative of the next, fourth generation of Chinese leaders.
Expert on China, chief researcher at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Lomanov, believes that strong and rich China is beneficial for Russia.
- You have to understang that without a context, not a single quote really shows what is happening in China right now. Overall, last congress demonstrates that China reached a new stage of development. It's qualitatively different from previous ones and it's very important, both for Russia and for the entire world.
First of all, China outlined development program for the next thirty years. It's a lot. It's unlikely that current Chinese leaders and even their successors will be able to witness the end of this program. Especially if country's leadership will continue to change every ten years. This is the manifestation of power of Chinese system. It's capable to set goals that are not limited to electoral cycle, which makes it completely different from the West.
"Free Press": Announced goals sounded somewhat trivially for Russian ear.
- There's a very interesting language nuance. Talking about the future of China, Xi Jinping added another hieroglyph to what he said, which means "strong." Before that he said about building "rich, strong, democratic, harmonious, civilized, modernized, socialist state." And he reaplced the word "state" with the word "power". In Chinese it sounds like a "strong state". So he basically said strong twice.
All of this emphasizes China's goal very well - to become powerful state, equal to the leading powers of the world. China will no longer be on the sidelines of world processes.
"Free Press": Should Russia fear it or not?
- The main thing here is that China is predictable and stable. Chinese leadership made these plans, which will allow Chinese economy to maintain growth. GDP growth will continue to be at around 6-6.5% per year. Apparently, ratio of Russia's and China's economies will reach 1:10 by the beginning of next decade, and China will be equal to the United States. Russia needs to use this factor of a rich partner in the east. It's a positive factor for us.
"Free Press": So Chinese invasion into Russia's Siberia has been canceled?
- Why should they come here? What normal resident of China will go to a country where salaries are lower than in his own country? In addition, Chinese population is rapidly aging and it's unlikely that old people will go to Siberia, especially illegally. In addition, it's too cold in Russia for them. So there's also irrational fear.
Of course, China will come to Russia, but in a different context. Beijing is interested in building transport corridors through Russia to the West. And Moscow shouldn't passively wait for the offer, on the contrary, we must actively think about different projects and propose them. Unlike small and weak countries, Russia clearly shouldn't agree to every proposed project. Putin and Xi Jingping talked about these things.
By the way, another argument against possible Chinese physical expansion is that China's economy is changing, it rapidly develops new technologies in industry, energy, it's becoming an innovative economy of knowledge, which no longer needs additional territories.
"Free Press": What can you say about China's future foreign policy?
- Unlike congresses of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, where they discussed the international situation at the beginning, China is focused on resolving its own problems, not world problems. The international issues are always discussed at the end. In addition, they never mention specific problems.
As for the new things they said, the CPC considers promotion of the idea of common destiny of mankind as one of its main goals. This can be called "Chinese version of globalization." It's a globalization that takes into account interests of developing, weak countries. This is Xi Jinping's new "umbrella" idea. And now it's "canonized."
- The fact that during the congress China broadcasted its strategic line to the outside world is a positive step, - political scientist Leonid Krutakov said. - Any strengthening of sovereign positions in the world, be it in Syria, in India, in European countries or in China, is beneficial for Russia.
China has exhausted the limits of Confucian development in the framework of another system. Previously, it developed without interfering in anything. Now it's already impossible to stay in the position of a secondary country. It's obvious for the enter world that China is more than just a regional country. Their interests extend far beyond their borders. And if China hides these interests, then there is a suspicion, why? It would mead that there are some secret interests.
"Free Press": How should Russia react?
- The most important thing is that Russia doesn't follow anyone's big strategy. We have already spent twenty years dealing with the US strategy and realized that we are treated like poorly. The same thing with China. It has its own interests and Beijing is not willing to sacrifice them. Only for concessions in other areas.
That's why Russia needs its own development strategy. And I'm not talking about foreign policy, but about internal economic development. It's clear that when it comes to domestic market we can't compete with China, with America or with Europe. But we have our advantages. And our advantages must be turned into real investments. In addition, we have the EEU.
"Free Press": So what's the deal? Beijing showed us an example of sovereignty...
- No one proposed sovereign development program so far. Everyone wants to integrate into someone else's program. The economic part of our government thinks of itself as a part of someone else's project. Like, why should we reinvent the wheel, when everyone has already invented it. But then why do they need our country, if there are others and they are better? They should become Chinese, Americans, Germans and so on.
Our country needs brains that think differently. There must be people at the top who are working in sovereign interests of our country. Once you meet those interests, when the tasks have changed, it's necessary to replace those people. In today's world the most important thing is political will. No one will take historical merits into account.
