Today, just like 18 years ago, passions are rising around construction of pipelines for exporting Caspian hydrocarbons. Political scientists and economists try to support politicians. They hold round-table discussions, international conferences, write articles and “analyse works.” There is one aim: to stand up for the interests of a single company, Gazprom. Meanwhile, no alternative ways of protecting the interests of Gazprom and other companies are being suggested. Neither experts nor politicians want to see the result of recent events: the signing of the contract on the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli deposit in September 1994; discussion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline construction; development of the gas-rich Shah Denizdeposit; and construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum pipeline.
Gazprom and Russian oil companies, which have all the political and economy capabilities to operate all the projects, have not managed to use all their potential, because of unreasonable decisions by diplomats. As a result, the main role has shifted to Western companies, whereas Russian companies have a small share or nothing at all. Obviously, a boycott of the best Caspian projects is beneficial for their competitors.
A similar situation is forming after the recent opening of one more rich deposit in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, the Apsheron field. Again we hear voices saying: “Enemies are ignoring the interests of Russia by their intentions to build a pipeline by-passing its territory!” On the basis of such thoughts, Russian companies should refuse to develop hydrocarbons in the Middle East, because the oil and gas pipelines, transferring them to the markets, by-pass the territory of Russia. However, Gazprom and LUKoil participate in the projects and invest in deposits of countries situated far from Russia, but something prevents them from doing this on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Moreover, the benefit would be two-fold.
First of all, Russia is strengthening its political positions in these countries and gains from profitable projects on gas development and construction of the Caspian pipeline. Experts understand that construction of pipelines in the Black or the Baltic Sea doesn’t differ from building them in the Caspian Sea. The difference is that, unlike in the other two seas, in the Caspian Sea hydrocarbons are being developed by oil companies of all the litteral countries, and the system of pipelines for transporting natural resources was built many years ago. The problem of the undefined status of the Caspian Sea doesn’t prevent any Caspian country from development of oil and natural gas together with Western companies and partners from the former Soviet space. Furthermore, most of the litteral countries technically supported the principle of sector division, and Iran and Turkmenistan are ready to agree to it, depending on some details. In the early 1990s the situation was more difficult, but the military-political values failed and those who looked after the economic interests of Russia – Chernomyrdin, Shafrannik and Alekpertov – succeeded. This position reflects the interests of Russian companies and Russian society.
Secondly, why can Russia work in Libya, Iraq and other countries, but not in the Azerbaijani or Turkmenistan sector of the Caspian Sea? Politicians always say that Russia rejects the position of Big Brother and is building equal relations with neighbouring republics. Moreover, it is obvious that construction of the pipeline will improve peace in the region.
Ismail Aga-Kishi, VK expert.
