In recent times, two major events have shaken Georgian military and political life: the visit of US senators concerning anti-missile defense system construction and the decision of President Saakashvili to renounce the Russian-Georgian accord on military cargo transit to Armenia. Irakliy Aladashvili, chief editor of the independent analytical ‘Arsenali’ magazine, shared his opinion on the issue with our VK correspondent.
- US senators headed by republican John Cale visitid Georgia. These senators recently petitioned the US president on missile defense system radar deployment in Georgia. What’s the impact of this visit?
- The subject of this discussion is radar, not missiles. And radar should be located as close as possible to the supposed launch site. We all know that right now this supposed site is in Iran.
There were several projects: President Bush wanted to deploy the counter-missiles in Poland and the radar in the Czech Republic. Then, perhaps with some pressure from Russia, the radar project was moved to Turkey. However, Turkey posed a grave condition: it didn’t want any information obtained by the radar to be handed over to Israel. That’s quite illogical, as one of the facility’s obvious tasks is to gather information on Iran's activities in order to, among other things, protect Israel from its possible attacks. I don’t believe that the US will agree to such a condition. It was after this statement from Ankara that the senators’ proposal about Georgia was made.
It’s hard to tell whether it’s realistic in the present conditions. The senators’ visit and their proposal are quite important, but we shouldn’t overestimate these events. Georgian deputies, especially members of the opposition, also travel a lot and propose many projects… And the senators who came to Georgia are Republicans, i. e. Obama’s opposition. To tell you the truth I don’t believe that the project will come true under the current US administration, not with such a negative attitude from Moscow.
- And what about technical aspects of the project?
- Technically speaking it’s wise to deploy this radar on Georgian soil. It could cover the whole of Iran and other countries of the region up to India.
- Why does the US need to construct a new radar if there’s the large Qabala Radiolocation Station covering the Southern sector of the region? And Moscow and Baku showed that they are ready to consider this possibility.
- The Qabala Radar is a fixed facility. It can scan only in one direction. Americans want to have mobile radars. And in addition, this station was built in the 1980s, so now it’s not so up-to-date. It was constructed to ‘watch’ not Iran, but possible US activities in the Indian Ocean.
But all these deliberations are purely theoretical – I don’t believe that Obama’s going to spoil his relations with Russia over this radar problem.
- So hypothetically speaking, how would the radar benefit Georgia?
- The major part of Georgian territory would remain unprotected by radar, despite all its mobility. And if it is located, Russia is able to target all Georgian lands from South Ossetia or the North Caucasus.
However, if the US deploys its radar here, it will be obliged to protect it, thus protecting Georgian territories as well…So you see that deployment of the radar would become an element of a US military presence in Georgia, as they’ll have to sent troops to protect it.
- The Georgian Parliament renounced the Russian-Georgian accord of 2006 on Russian military cargo transit to Armenia. So what exactly was this accord about?
- It stipulated the possibility of access for Russian military transport to the Russian base in Armenia via Georgian territory by land and by air. Russia was obliged to warn the Georgian side of all cargo characteristics and transportation means three months before any transit. It also guaranteed that the cargo won’t end up in any ‘hot’ zone.
- And what means is Russia left with to supply its base in Armenia? The accord de facto hasn’t been functioning since the events of 2008…
- A route via Iran is possible. And the air corridor still remains – Georgia is not capable of fully controlling its airspace and is not prepared to shoot trespassers down.
Interview by Georgy Kalatozishvili, exclusively to VK
