An international conference on "Collective Security Treaty Organization and the South Caucasus: prospects for peace and security in the region” revealed the most probable position of the CSTO in the event of renewed hostilities on the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline. CSTO representatives tried to convey to their Armenian allies that their main goal is to avoid a resumption of hostilities in the area of Nagorno-Karabakh. The CSTO Secretary General warned that regular violations of the armistice regime could provoke a conflict that will be extremely “undesirable.” Based on the CSTO position on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue expressed at the conference, Armenia should not rely on Russia and the CSTO in the event of a military scenario of developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh, but look for diplomatic compromise to solve the problems with their neighbors.
Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian said that Armenia will expect a corresponding reaction from the CSTO in case of Azerbaijani military aggression on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. This statement seems to be misleading. Nagorno-Karabakh is de jure a part of Azerbaijan, therefore a possible military scenario cannot involve an attack of Azerbaijan on Armenia. One should also remember that Armenia’s obligations to protect the Nagorno-Karabakh have not been internationally recognized yet.
The CSTO has previously expressed similar positions regarding a possible involvement of Baku in hypothetical conflicts with one of its regions. At the same time, the charter of the organization states that it has no right to carry out any military operations on the territory of a country which is not a member of the CSTO and has not given consent for military action.
To conclude, Armenia is unlikely to receive any military support from Russia or the CSTO countries in case of a possible military conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh area. They can only do everything in order to facilitate pursuits of the conflicting parties in finding compromises on their way to the resolution of the conflict.Elmira Tariverdieva, exclusively for VK.
