The meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in Kazan has been heavily commented on by various politicians, analysts, observers and ordinary people. The key issue of all discussions is whether Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan sign the document on the Basic Principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
This problem is the centre of the contradictions between the sides. Yerevan should officially mark the withdrawal of its troops from Azeri regions around Karabakh without demanding recognition of the independence of the territory, as well as agreeing to the return of the Azerbaijanis who lived there before the conflict broke out.
In its turn, Baku has to accept that at some time in the future a referendum should take place in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would define the status of the territory.
These principles of the conflict settlement are agreed by the international mediators of the Minsk Group of the OSCE - Russia, the USA and France. Now it’s Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s turn. In this case, a new stage in the negotiations will begin – a detailed implementation of the plan. In other words, the signing of the document doesn’t mean a settlement of the conflict. However, an agreement by the sides in Kazan can help get rid of obstacles on the path to progress. Official signatures won’t allow the negotiations to be impeded.
If we compare the attitude of the sides to the meeting in Kazan, we will see that the Azeri state of mind is more positive. Azerbaijan is ready for further progress in the process of negotiations. However, Armenia is sceptical about the signing of the principles.
In this context, the sides in Kazan will probably sign another, less detailed and specific document. The mediators cannot allow a repeat of the Astana disappointment.
Meanwhile, the meeting in Kazan faces a great number of various expectations. The fact that the summit is being held in Kazan is also significant, first of all, for Azerbaijan. The Azeri side has proposed that Karabakh employ the model of Tatarstan’s self-administration.
Yevgeny Krishtalev. Exclusively to VK.
