The visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan to Azerbaijan could highlight important issues such as - how strong is the union of Baku and Ankara, what is the level of mutual understanding between the partners and are they ready to meet each other's interests? The political crisis in the region is at a dead-end and the prospects are gloomy. After intense diplomatic efforts, several visits by the Turkish Premier to the US and some European countries and a meeting with Russian President Medvedev in Ankara, Erdogan is visiting Baku not merely to share his impressions with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliev. The two politicians have to draw up a joint strategy regarding the freeze in Armenian-Turkish relations, and minimal progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
Both sides, as always, are going to strengthen their relations throughthe economy. For several years Azerbaijan has made efforts to revise gas prices, as provided for in the contract, and solve an even more serious problem - the opening of a new gas transit route to Europe through Turkish territory. As Baku experts point out, suppliers, consumers and transit countries would benefit by the signing of an agreement on gas issues with Azerbaijan. As the deputy director of the "Trend Capital" agency said, reaching an agreement would allowAzerbaijan to calculate gas prices and begin negotiations with potential consumers.
The Turkish side has stood up to pressure from Azerbaijani for a long time, but in the end mercantilism has given way to the cold logic of strategic partnership. To some degree, Turkey's desire to re-establish relations with Armenia, without taking into consideration Azerbaijani interests, was an obstacle. The authorities in Baku were afraid that Ankara would hastily reopen the Turkish-Armenian border, without a positive shift in the Karabakh process. The tough Azerbaijani position on this issue was noted by the Turkish authorities and made them change their position on Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. This issue will be raised during the Erdogan's visit to Baku. Ankara has strengthened its position in a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, so it's no wonder that Azerbaijan is waiting for new proposals and ways to resolve the problem.
Meanwhile, it is doubtful that Turkey will be included As one of the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group. It already has observer status, and Armenia will hardly allow the trio turn into a quartet. Nevertheless, Turkey still has a lever of pressure on Armenia, even after the protocols of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement have been frozen. Turkish politicians have put the issue of Karabakh at the forefront of Armenian-Turkish relations. It is not for nothing that, during the visit of Medvedev to Turkey a solid block of time was devoted to the Karabakh issue, and both leaders have confirmed their willingness to back a peace settlement. The linkage of the two settlement processes has turned out to be really successful, notwithstanding that the US and Russia have tried to separate them. In any case, the issue of the day now is the resolving of the two problems into one 'package', to find the best solution.
Evgenii Krishtalev. Exclusevely for VK.
