Baku draws a line in relations with Teheran

Another diplomatic scandal aggravated unstable relations between Iran and Azerbaijan even more. (See VK’s article on the subject: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/16982.html).  The scandal erupted when the Head of the Iranian General Staff, Hasan Firusabadi, said that the Azerbaijani people are blood-related to the Iranian people and thus Azerbaijan’s destiny is of concern to Iran, and this future destiny would be quite obscure unless Azerbaijan changes its state policy towards Islam.

It’s safe to assume that such a statement, coming from the Head of the General Staff, is no accident and that it reflects Iran’s desire to govern Azerbaijan’s internal and foreign policies. And it’s no coincidence that such a statement was made right after the trial began of members of the illegal Islamist Party of Azerbaijan. The party, organized and sponsored by Iran, didn’t enjoy wide public support in Azerbaijan. However, Iranian Islam-based power doesn’t take state borders into consideration. Teheran officials feel certain that they have a sort of jurisdiction over all lands where the words of Iranian spiritual leaders are being heeded. Therefore, the Iranian authorities have no doubts about the legitimacy or morality of supporting Shiah followers abroad with money or even weapons: it is known for a fact that Iran supports Shiah groups in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq, as well as the current Syrian leadership. 85% of Azerbaijan’s population are also Shiah Muslims. It is obvious that Iran is extremely interested in gaining ultimate influence over such a close neighbor, so creating an Islamist ‘fifth column’ that would hamper Azerbaijan’s pro-Western civic political course is in Iran’s best interests.

However, the factor of so-called South Azerbaijan is even more decisive in this matter: ethnic Azerbaijanis constitute a considerable part of the whole Iranian population. According to the latest data, some 20 million ethnic Azerbaijanis reside in Iran. However, they are denied any rights of an ethnic minority; they have no opportunity to support their separate culture or language. Of course, strong and independent Azerbaijan can have a very strong and dangerous power over Iran’s oppressed Azerbaijani population.

Turkish expert Guner Ozkan described the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran quite expressively with the title of his recent article: ‘Quarrelling brothers’. In the article he states that “Azerbaijan’s desire to secure its borders from aggressive Armenian claims led it to seek closer relations with Israel and the USA. Iran couldn’t accept that and started developing means to control and weaken Azerbaijan’. It is true that Iran doesn’t like Azerbaijan leaning towards the West instead of the East. To prevent Azerbaijan from gaining more power and political weight, Iran allied itself with Armenia and started supporting extremist groups within Azerbaijan. We asked Stephan Meister, PhD, German political expert to comment on the situation.

- Recently the Azerbaijani authorities conducted a series of arrests among Islamic activists, which stirred tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. The Iranian Chief of Staff even said that ‘an obscure future’ awaits Azerbaijan because its government conducts an anti-Muslim policy. Of course, such a statement caused a furious response from Azerbaijani officials, who launched an official protest. Herr Meister, what do you think, will this hostile and scandalous tendency prevail in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in the future if we take Iran’s Islamist propaganda on Azerbaijani territory into account?

- This problem has deep roots. It is defined by a number of factors: the Azerbaijani ethnic minority in Iran that could, according to the Iranian government’s concerns, fall under Azerbaijan’s influence; the tolerant attitude towards different religions prevailing in Azerbaijan that never heeded strict orthodox Islam; etc. Azerbaijan fears that Iran’s radical influence could feed religious extremism within the society. I believe that this concern is based on solid grounds, and I believe this problem will darken Azerbaijani-Iranian relations for a long time in the future. In addition, Azerbaijan is a partner of the US and always tries to balance between US, Iranian and Russian interests in the region. And in this balance Azerbaijan manages to remain truly independent due to its vast natural resources.  And all this provokes Iran to become more and more aggressive towardsAzerbaijan.

And there’s still the problem of international terrorism and groups backed by Iran. But I’m not sure if the Azerbaijani government personalizes this threat in some groups within the country. There are some concerns about the possibility of a youth ‘facebook revolution’ in Azerbaijan, I can tell you that much. There have already been some omens of such developments. Plus, it is obvious that Iran is interested in destabilizing the situation in Azerbaijan. First of all, Tehran aspires to change the pro-western course of Azerbaijani politics, and secondly Iran tries to minimize Azerbaijan’s influence over the Azerbaijani ethnic minority within the country. Bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are in pretty bad shape and I don’t believe they’ll change for the better any time soon. The main question is how the situation will develop in general in the region, how stable its main powers will remain, how the US policy will change. 

Right now I don’t believe that Barak Obama will get re-elected, it is possible that the republicans will make their return to the White House, and in that case the course of Caspian and Caucasian policy of the USA will change drastically. They will try to limit Russia’s influence over the region and to use other countries to pressure Iran, and that will most definitely lead to conflicts. So I don’t see any positive prospects for now. Azerbaijan’s government is under a great deal of pressure now: EU funding of its energy projects is not enough, but on the other hand it tries to avoid falling under Russian influence. And there’s also the spirit of the ‘Arab spring’, the pressure of public opinion: no progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict irritates Azeri people. Iran also exercises its share of pressure. The government feels threatened and that’s why it implements strict measures to assure order within the country.

Whether Baku overreacts to the Islamist threat, or whether its actions are based on solid intelligence reports, remains to be seen. A lot has been said about using the ‘Islamist threat’ as a pretext for implementing tight security measures at home, but it is unlikely that Azerbaijan would spoil its relations with such a powerful neighbor over a mere fantasy. Azerbaijani officials are always very careful in their statements concerning Iran and exclude any possibility of using Azerbaijani bases and territories by any force willing to attack Iran. And it seems Iranian leaders got this peacefulness mixed up with fear and decided to take advantage of it. Baku demonstrated its readiness to fight any ‘fifth column’ Iran might try to create within Azerbaijan and protect the country’s sovereignty, especially in the face of a developing Iranian-Armenian partnership. Azerbaijan’s leaders drew a sort of ‘red line’ for Tehran. And the arrests of Islamist Party of Azerbaijan members are a message for Iran, saying that Azerbaijan is an independent state and will not tolerate any interference in its affairs; much less will it let Iran turn it into a province. And now it’s Iran’s turn to take action. Surprised as it is by Azerbaijan’s sudden harsh response.

Orkhan Sattarov, Head of VK’s European Bureau