Israeli-Turkish relations are deteriorating rapidly and the confrontation seems to be reaching boiling point: Ankara has banished Israeli diplomats from the country and recalled the Turkish ambassador from Tel-Aviv, military cooperation between the two countries has been suspended indefinitely, both Israeli and Turkish customs have started examining tourists from the opponent-state with excessive thoroughness and both governments threaten to introduce further sanctions. All these manifestations of hostility indicate that the deterioration of bilateral relations between Israel and Turkey has reached the point of no return.
The scandal at the Davos World Economic Forum in 2009, when the Turkish prime minister insulted the Israeli representative and the incident of the Turkish ‘Mavi Marmara’ vessel, attacked by Israeli forces in 2010 resulting in the deaths of 9 Turkish citizens, turned the seemingly friendly Turkish-Israeli relations in the opposite direction. The UN supports the Israeli point of view on the ‘Mavi Marmara’ incident, recognizing the legitimacy of the Gaza Strip blockade. However, this UN conclusion didn’t stop Turkey from introducing sanctions against Israel.
The question is, were these incidents a reason or a consequence of this unwinding conflict? The history of Turkish-Israeli relations is rich in ups and downs. Turkey was the first Muslim state to recognize Israel in 1949. In 1980, however, when Israel annexed Eastern part of Jerusalem, Turkey severed official diplomatic relations with the state. Relations were restored only in 1992.
After 1992 the two countries strengthened their mutual relations and worked towards cooperation and even reached the level of ‘strategic partnership’ in the fields of the economy, politics and warfare. The Israeli lobby in the USA helped Turkey to prevent the Armenian lobby from passing the bill on recognition of Armenian genocide by the Turks and, in turn, Turkey proved to be the only reliable supporter of Israel in the region.
However, since Erdogan’s party came to power in Ankara, Turkey’s political course regarding Israel has changed dramatically. Of course, the changes weren’t evident right away, and even in 2008 Turkey was an active mediator (even though an unsuccessful one) in Israeli-Syrian dialogue.
One of the key moments in the process of deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations was the appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu to the post of the Foreign Minister in 2009. He is a partisan of a more
Eastern-oriented political course. This type of policy could even be called a ‘neo-Ottoman’ one, despite the objections of Turkish officials, as it is aimed at restoring Turkey’s influence in the former provinces of the Ottoman Empire. And the deterioration of relations with Israel is a natural consequence of such a course.
Erdogan’s government possesses all the necessary means to conduct its new eastern policy, as the internal threat of a military coup has been neutralized and the ruling party won a decisive victory in the last elections. Even the ‘Arab Spring’ didn’t undermine the AKP’s authority: Erdogan managed to sever all connections with unfortunate dictators just in time to save his own image. His forthcoming visit to Egypt will show whether the Turkish PM will be able to benefit from
new Middle Eastern regimes and succeed in his foreign policy or not. Experts say that it is possible that Erdogan will visit the Gaza Strip on his way back from Egypt.
It is obvious that Turkey aspires to become the consolidating force for the newly formed ‘Arab-spring governments’: Erdogan once said that, if Israel will insist on its current position, the new states of the Arab East will be able to confront it.
It is, however, inaccurate to assume that Turkey is the only culprit of the deterioration in Israeli-Turkish relations. True, Ankara is trying to play on this conflict to gain the trust of the Arab world. But another important issue here is the harsh and aggressive policy of Israel in the region. Turkey has just reached a sufficient level of power to finally openly disapprove of Israel’s actions and even confront it.
It is possible that this conflict will reach its climax on September 20, when the UN will vote on Palestinian State recognition. Turkey chose this date as the final date of its ultimatum to Israel: Ankara wants Tel-Aviv to lift the Gaza Strip blockade and apologize for the ‘Mavi Marmara’ incident, as well as pay financial compensation to the families of the deceased. After the term of this ultimatum ends we’ll see whether the conflict will be resolved or will continue to escalate.
Orhan Sattarov, Head of the VK’s European bureau
