Is Europe ready to take a risk?

The discovery of new gas reserves in the Absheron gas field by the French company Total seems to have reignited passion for the notorious “gas game”. In actual fact this isn’t the first year that talk in European countries has been about looking after their own energy security, where one of the most important aspects is diversification of hydrocarbon deliveries. Translated, this means lowering the share of Russian hydrocarbons on the European market, so that Moscow can’t use its dominating role there as a lever of political pressure.

At first, interest in this “took off”, for obvious reasons, after which discussions of new pipeline projects began to loose topicality. But now the discovery of new gas fields on the Azerbaijani shelf has led to the words “Caspian Sea”, “gas” and “pipeline” reappearing on the front pages.

A few days after it became aware of the discovery of a new gas field on September 12, the EU Council approved the mandate for the European Commission to negotiate directly with the governments of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline, which should take place on the Caspian.

As EU Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger stated, the construction of this pipeline is an integral part of the EU’s new external energy policy. However, it should be recalled that Russia and Iran were against construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline from the start. Officially, these countries are concerned about a possible threat to the Caspian environment - saying the pipeline will be placed in a closed water body with high seismic activity. In reality, many analysts believe that Russia cares about the loss of its monopoly on the European energy market and the increasing independence of Azerbaijan. It’s even clearer why the prospects of growing EU influence in the Caspian region concerned Iran.

Tehran, meanwhile, is keeping silent about the EU‘s movement in the "Caspian direction," but the Russian Foreign Ministry reacted rather harshly to the decision of the EU Council. Citing the environmental threat that will affect all states of the Caspian basin, Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich expressed surprise at the fact that the EU is planning to build a pipeline to a pool, to which it has no access. The reaction of the EU was not long in coming, it responded with a statement directly by Commissioner Günther Oettinger - one of the main lobbyists for the "South Corridor". The agency "Turan" cited Deutsche Welle as saying Oettinger described European Union access to Caspian Sea Region and Central Asia, where the world's largest gas reserves are located after Russia, as a key issue for the EU.

"If Moscow will accept the fact that Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have the right to make independent decisions, the Europeans will put considerably more trust in energy such as gas," Oettinger said, stressing:"If the Russians try to put a spoke in the wheels of Nabucco and at the same time put pressure on Ashgabat and Baku, and I personally would put less trust in long-term gas contracts and believe less that gas is not a political tool for Russia".

According to Berlin's political lobby, Oettinger, a native of southern Germany, a wealthy, successful businessman an a frequent guest in Baku, is generally a pretty tough politician, who does not hesitate to make direct statements, and the reaction to them is sometimes ambiguous. 

Oettinger has made it clear that the EU has its own core interests, and he does not intend to waive them. The whole issue is now is whether the Europeans, chronically suffering from the inability to coordinate their actions on the foreign policy front, can now speak with one voice. And when Oettinger says "the key issue for the EU", you want to ask for any country or group of countries, lobbying for their interests in the EU, is this question the key? Because while the EU has no common understanding of its own foreign policy and interests, until Europe comes out of this amorphous state, and will not be a foreign entity that can provide political guarantees to its potential partners - such as Baku and Ashgabat - the "hard line Oettinger" would be rather fragmented.

Certainly, there is an understanding of this - in fact, a key issue for the EU - in Europe, and Chancellor Merkel has once again expressed the need for greater integration within Europe, and changes of a "stronger harmonization of economic, financial, and political action." "Unless the world changes, then we must be prepared to spend some changes in our union," said Merkel, adding that this will require further changes to the Treaty of Lisbon.

It should be noted that Brussels has still made some progress in developing a unified position, at least in energy matters, and this is recognized by Russian diplomats. As Russia's permanent representative to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, told the news agency Interfax: "For the first time in the history of the European Union a mandate was made to negotiate on behalf of the European Commission and it was very proud of it. In the eyes of its members, this is the first real manifestation of a common EU foreign energy policy, the lack of which has traditionally been regarded, as Brussels officials say, the EU’s failure to have "one voice" with supplier countries’ energy resources. "

In Baku, all these factors have been taken into account and it has chosen not to intervene in the ongoing debate between the EU and Russia, while watching it from the side. Despite the stated desire for Baku to participate in the "Southern Corridor" projects and the natural desire to enter the European gas market, without clear guarantees and tangible political support from Brussels and Washington, Baku is unlikely to risk aggravating relations directly with its two powerful neighbours - Russia and Iran. And without customers for gas, Azerbaijan will not remain in any case - the offer of "Gazprom" to buy up any volume of gas from Azerbaijan at the market price remains valid. Anyway, a decision has to be made today in Brussels. Time will tell if they are ready for real action to achieve their desired energy security.