Series of big resignations of Armenian top politicians and officials – the speaker of the parliament Ovik Abramyan, the mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan and the head of the police Alik Sarkisyan – was a surprise for many. However, in the context of rumors on continuation of resonant resignations all future shuffles will be a part of the general process, which logic cannot be understood by the Armenian society, including the political elite.
According to the head of the Armenian Centre of National and Strategic Research, Manvel Sarkisyan, all recent resignations are a part of one internal political process in Armenia: “The speaker of the parliament Ovik Abramyan expressed the idea of the developments very accurately: the republicans are preparing for the elections.” The president’s team decided for who it will work. Indirectly it was confirmed by the leader of Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan, who said that coalition memorandum with the republicans maintains.
Meanwhile, prospects of holding early elections in Armenia have grown. At the moment early elections won’t be considered as of the authorities withdrawing and the opposition’s victory. In this context it doesn’t matter when the early elections take place: a month or a year before the planned elections.
The Armenian National Congress doesn’t demand early elections anymore, as it was one of items of agreement between the authorities and the ANC within the failed dialogue. Recent events say that in reality only the above surface part failed, the main part of the common plan is undergoing. It is proved by 17-20 places in the parliament of 2012, which are promised to the ANC.
There is one more layer in Armenian establishment, which believes that nothing will be changed after recent resignations. The representative of the initiative group of the Movement Sardarapat, the well-known film director Tigran Khzmalyan, is one of them. “All recent shuffles in power are attempts of card players, heading Armenia, to build a house of cards. They have nothing in common with real problems of the country and the society, as in Armenia selection of human resources has gained unhealthy character. The card players are a group of wealthy thieves, who occupied Armenia and power in it. Their only aim is to continue robbing the country. They run out all intellectual, real and political resources. Their house of cards is being build from old shabby cards,” Khzmlyan told VK.
Thus, the reasons of big resignations are understandable only for President Sargsyan, who applies his chess skills in policy. Pro-governmental forces try to perform the developments as a normal process, which is connected with election campaign only. The opposition speaks about a revealed plot, aimed at removal of Sargsyan. ANC considers the shuffle as weakness of President and his desire to strengthen his power by reliable people. In favor of this guess rapid growth of political importance of the former head of the military police, Vladimir Gasparyan, is given as evidence. The opposition believes that the authorities fight indirectly with Robert Kacharyan, who stated on his possible return to big policy.
However, according to Manvel Sarkisyan, rumors that the former president is preparing a turnover are fake, as the process of resignations doesn’t refer to Kocharyan.
The current president needs reliable people in key positions for improving his image within the country and abroad. Early elections can lead to tenterhooks of the authorities, and some interested forces can try to gain power. Statements by Alik Sarkisyan after his resignation on devotion to President Sargsyan in any case prove it.
Only resignation of Yerevan’s mayor Karen Karapetyan doesn’t correlate to the logic of the process. Some politicians think that the real reason of it is contradiction between the former mayor and the son-in-law of the president Mikael Minasyan. However, Minasyan resigned as well, he took the position of the deputy head of the presidential administration. Now he will look after the former speaker of the parliament Abramyan as the head of the election headquarters of the republicans.
There is one more version of the developments in Armenia. It is connected with activity of foreign forces. It can be true, considering dependence of Armenia on the foreign players. The former minister of internal affairs, the aide of the presidents on national security issues Ashot Manchuryan told VK that recent resignations are caused and initiated by foreign forces. According to him, Armenia stepped into the situation of more dynamic political processes. The analyst thinks that the fact of elimination of the criminalized state system connected with Russia is taking place. It is positive for Armenia.
Thus, analysis of recent trends in internal policy of the republic enables us make a conclusion that all steps by President are aimed at improving his rating in the country and abroad. In addition, the authorities try to provide safe environment ahead the elections, notwithstanding will they be planned or early.
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK.
