Azerbaijani-Georgian confederation

After publication of Vladimir Putin’s article on plans of the Eurasian Union establishment in the former Soviet Union, the importance of regional integration projects has begun to grow. Moscow, represented by the next president of Russia, stated its priorities in the sphere of integration efforts, which began right after dissolution of the USSR with establishment of the CIS.

When Mikhail Saakashvili came to office, necessity in defining of countries-partners and prospects of regional integration, based on common interests, appeared. In this context initiative by official Tbilisi on establishment confederation of Azerbaijan and Georgia should be considered.

At first many experts thought that the emotional statement by Mikhail Saakashvili (after visit of Ilham Aliyev to Batumi last summer) is display of his outrageous behavior. Previously the Georgian leader spoke about the confederation with Georgia in the context of gratitude to Baku for support in energy sphere during the gas crisis 2006, when the North Ossetian part of Russia-Georgia-Armenia pipeline was exploded and the country had no access to Russian gas during several weeks. Only Azerbaijan’s help enabled Georgia to overcome the crisis.

It is interesting that the president of Azerbaijan and officials in Baku do not comment the initiative of Georgian neighbors. However, there are many facts which say that Saakashvili’s proposal is not spontaneous, but a pragmatic choice, considering long-term interests of Georgia in the sphere of energy security. Representatives of the foreign ministry of Georgia have spoken about the confederation with Azerbaijan several times.  And diplomats are less emotional than politicians.

The main point of Mikhail Saakashvili is that Azerbaijani-Georgian relations in all spheres - from economy and energy to foreign policy – have confederation character. It means the reality should be legally formalized and fat is in the fire. Due to long-term contract with Azerbaijan Georgia was managed to refuse from Russian gas import. Considering the current relations between Moscow and Tbilisi, such independence stands high. Turnover between two countries is growing. Georgia became a main transit corridor for Azerbaijan to Turkey and Europe. The railway Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkaliki-Kars is being built. In fact Saakashvili only proposed to give a name to the already existing strategic union, based on common interests.

Speaking about the confederation with Azerbaijan, Mikhail Saakashvili means prospect of trilateral political union between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. Turkey as a powerful regional force with rich economy and military resources is considered by the Georgian authorities as a guarantee of military and political status quo, which had formed after 2008.

The project by Saakashvili is not utopist. However, policy is an art of possibilities, and even most realistic project can be buried by certain correspondence of forces, resources and leverages of influence.

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to VK.