In recent months the Russian and Western mass media have been actively discussing the Caspian dialogue. On the one hand, optimistic statements are heard that a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea will be signed in the near future. On the other hand, new serious risks appear connected with the militarization of the Caspian region and possible destabilization in one of the states of the region.
During the last 2-3 years Iran was traditionally considered to be a zone of risk, but today concern is expressed about the situation in Turkmenistan, which has a rather long border with Afghanistan and where the stable situation could shift in the near future.
The vulnerability of the Ashkhabad regime is a consequence of its strong sides. It is not a paradox, but a real appraisal of the policy, defined by Saparmurat Niyazov in the 1990s: neutrality and non-alignment in any integration projects. This foreign political model has been successfully functioning for 20 years. However, in the current conditions of chaotic international relations, the oil and gas shield of Ashkhabad could fail as a universal solution to all problems.
The USA tries to persuade Ashkhabad into more intensive participation in the process of the Afghan problem settlement. However, nobody can guarantee that the Americans will leave Afghanistan after 2014. Moreover, more intensive participation in the settlement process can turn the safety border between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan into a zone of risk.
At the same time, the way of solving problems chosen by Ashkhabad does not seem to be effective. It tries to avoid discussion of any sharp problems of regional policy. Methods which were effective 5-6 years ago are not necessarily successful in the context of changing realities in the big geostrategic region of the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Astana has many times suggested to the Turkmen leader discussion of bilateral relations and multi-faceted problems. However, neither Berdymukhamedov nor his environment have demonstrated a readiness to discuss mutual models of security. In this situation any attempt to destabilize Turkmenistan by foreign forces could turn out to be a disaster, as, according to many experts, internal strength is only a metaphor. The system is not really effective. Meanwhile, developments in Tunisia, Libya and other Arab countries should encourage drawing a lesson. Destabilization can be prevented by integration and consolidation of efforts of resistance to common risks.
In two months Turkmenistan is due to hold presidential elections. Observers say that election could lead to realisation of the Arab Spring scenario in Central Asia. In this context, Gurganguly Berdymukhamedov stated his readiness to cooperate with the opposition. However, the current Turkmen regime is not able to evolve. Time will tell whether it will be changed like in Tunisia or a whether a civil war will be started like in Libya.
Alexei Vlasov. Exclusively to VK
