2011 was not a crucial moment in development of the situation in the Caspian region. Tendencies in the sphere of security, problem of the legal status of the sea, and pipeline routes are still multi-directional. Interests of the Caspian littoral countries approached in the sphere of signing the Convention on legal status of the sea, but in other debatable problems there is no one solid position, and this fact leads to growth of risks in the region and adds fuel to the fire of the situation around Iran.
The interests of Russia in 2012 will concern restriction of influence of non-regional forces in the Caspian region, strengthening of military alignment as a deterrent and resistance to possible risks, including grown level of terrorist threat for oil deposits in the region.
The key problem zone is continuation of militarization of the region. It concerns not only growth of military potential of five Caspian littoral states, but direct participation of non-regional players in the program of rearmament in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. These steps by Washington caused critical reaction by Moscow and Tehran. According to the Russian party, “security of sea borders is an internal affair of littoral states, which do not need support of third countries.” As for Tehran, the official representative of the Iranian foreign ministry said that military presence of non-regional forces complicates problems of the Caspian Sea. Approach of Moscow’s and Tehran’s positions in this sphere will continue in 2012.
One more key issue of the Caspian agenda in 2011 was the Transcaspian gas pipeline. Obviously, the implementation of this project will be one of priorities for the EU, but it contradicts Russia’s energy strategy in the region. It seems in 2012 Moscow, Baku, Ashkhabad and Astana will have difficult negotiations on this issue.
Positional rivalry between Moscow, Brussels and Washington didn’t lead to final win of any side. It is hardly the “big game” will be over in the nearest future. Kazakhstan still agrees with Moscow that construction of the pipeline is possible only after signing of the Convention. However, Astana can correct its position under pressure of foreign forces.
Alexei Vlasov. Exclusively to VK
