As predicted by most observers, on December 22 the French National Assembly passed a bill criminalizing the denial of genocide. In particular, it referred to the "Armenian genocide", that remains a debatable subject among historians. As a result, the question of became the instrument of domestic and foreign policy for the officials in Paris: in France they are trying to get support and the votes of the a large Armenian community, while on the international level it puts another barrier on the way of Turkey to the EU.
The reaction of Ankara to the decision of French parliamentarians followed very soon. Almost immediately after the adoption of the bill, Turkey began to put into effect the first batch of promised sanctions against France. It is not just about the unprecedentedly tough rhetoric of the Turkish-French relations from the Turkish side (as, for example, attacks against the family of Sarkozy by Erdogan), but also refers to the specific policy steps.
As APA reports quoting "Hebertyurk" , Erdogan, who held a press conference in Ankara with President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych described the approval of the Armenian Law by the lower house of French Parliament, as an "injustice and decision against freedom of thought." According to him, in France, the deputies violated the principles of freedom of thought. "This decision is unfair more to France than to Turkey. In France, now there is no freedom of thought. I thank the French deputies who opposed this decision." Stressing that Turkey is proud of its history, the Prime Minister said that history is written not in parliament, and said that those who turned history into a political tool, will not be forgiven neither by history, nor by the people: "It is impossible for us to leave this without response. In the first stage, we have withdrawn our ambassador from Paris, abandon the meeting of trade and economic commission, freeze all bilateral political, economic and military ties, refuse to participate in projects within the EU." In addition, Erdogan said that from now on for every flight over Turkish territory every French aircraft will need to obtain special permission, and French warships will not be allowed in Turkish ports. And then promised: "We will do our best to let the world recognize the genocide committed by France in Africa."
Despite a strong emotional reaction, which recently has become typical for the Turkish diplomacy under the leadership of the AKP, Ankara's steps are well-calculated. At a time when Ankara is forced to take up the defensive position, its attempt to hold a diplomatic counter-attack about the recognition of events in Algeria and Rwanda as "genocide" is understandable. Ankara is now trying to put massive pressure on Paris in pursuit of specific goals at in both the short and medium term. And if in the short term Turkey is trying to prevent the approval of the bill by the Senate of France, in the medium term the aim is to warn all the other countries of similar steps. And here we are also talking about the U.S., where the positions of the Armenian Diaspora is very strong.
But the tools with which Turkey can attempt to influence the outcome of the vote in the French Senate, rather scanty. Turkey is far from being a leading economic partner of France, the trade turnover between the two countries is about 11 billion euro. The amount is not that small, but Turkey is not even among the top ten trade partners of France. In addition, tone cannot really speak about the compete stop of trade between the countries as both of them are the WTO members with the corresponding responsibilities. The think that the French companies would have to forget is the participation in the ongoing public tenders in Turkey that refer to much more serious business than cosmetics or high fashion.
Clearly, Ankara also at risk: the passions of the Turkish-French relations led to a diplomatic confrontation, and, according to many experts, it can have an effect a on the French Senate, different from the one that Turkey is trying to achieve. Another issue is that the Senate is traditionally more pragmatic than the National Assembly, and there plant in Sinop and Airbus for "Turkish Airlines" have a different "voice equivalent."
The liberal community in Europe, as shows the analysis of articles in the Western media and blogs, reacted to only one argument of Erdogan: criminalization of denial of "genocide" is a violation of freedom of thought, and drives the research of historical events in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 in the framework defined by the legislature passed without going into details of the event. Moreover, this law is a very dangerous precedent and really does not suit a democratic society.
However. according to many experts, it was necessary to "play" this car different. As said the head of the Azerbaijani community of Crimea Rahim Humbatov to the portal Vesti.az, Turkey should have taken adequate preventive measures without "noise and dust. "For example, a group of French citizens of Turkish origin or association of the Turkish Diaspora could sue the initiators of the bill because it violates the basic human rights that are protected by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. By the way, the opinion that the bill violates the freedom of speech was also voiced in the French parliament. In addition, it could have been possible to call back the deputies, who were ardent supporters of this law. We can assume that the beginning of this procedure alone would have scared many supporters of this idea. You can also find other levers of influence."
Other experts, however, believe that the legislators can be influenced by the economic factor, as the French business has its own mechanisms of influence. Anyway, the harsh reaction of Turkey is a definite reason to think for those who are already planning a similar bill. First of all, this concerns the US where, in fact, the presidential race has already started, and so has the search for sponsors, and the Armenian question is bound to pop up. But if the potential consideration of this issue in the U.S. so far remains an issue of the next year, Israel this week will hold a meeting of the Knesset Committee on Education, Culture and Sport, that will discuss the "Armenian genocide". Most experts agree that the chances of adoption of this law in the Knesset tends to zero. Commission Chairman Alex Miller opposes the bill and calls Israel to avoid imitating the French, who, in his opinion, went to a confrontation with Turkey over domestic political reasons. Finally, most experts in Israel have never equated the events of 1915 and the Holocaust. Israel also cannot ignore these things: yes, after the AKP came to power, relations between the two countries have become quite tense. Israeli special forces storming of the "Freedom Flotilla" has led to strong diplomatic crisis, but , paradoxically, the trade turnover between the two countries during this crisis has increased significantly. In addition, all the political forces in Turkey have the same opinion about the Armenian questions so Israel is not only risking to further damage relations with the AKP, but also to lose any hope for their recovery even after if it will be replaced by another party. Whether Israel is ready to sacrifice all the prospects for the improvement of the relations with Turkey is not really a question.
However, the current Franco-Turkish crisis has one more side. Certain experts, published recently in Russian media, believe that Ankara might turn to "imminent resuscitation of Armenian-Turkish Zurich protocols," to avoid further recognition of "Armenian genocide" in the world, particularly in the U.S. . Russian political scientist Stanislav Tarasov notes in this regard to the agency "Regnum" that "Turkey will play Armenian card actively and soon - before the consideration of the bill on genocide in the French Senate next spring - will begin the process of ratification of the Zurich agreements to normalize relations with Armenia. It will also seek the solutions to this problem in such a way that will allow to keep the relations with Azerbaijan. It is possible that it will try to agree on this issue with Moscow, while gradually distancing from the Karabakh settlement process ".
But the reality is that Turkey at this stage is not going to make any concessions or distance itself from the process of the Karabakh settlement. In our opinion it is no coincidence that, after the adoption of the disputed bill by the French parliament, Turkish President Abdullah Gul almost called for France to be replaced as a mediator in the OSCE. This can be regarded as a sign that Turkey is against the unprecedented pressure on it and it will consolidate with Azerbaijan even more against a common enemy. Moreover, Turkey simply has no need to betray Azerbaijan, especially after France and Germany buried even a long-term prospect of Turkish membership in the EU.
But most importantly, the decision of the French parliamentarians proved the Zurich protocols to be . The main goal for Turkey was to stop Armenian lobbying campaign in the parliaments of third countries, and if, in spite of the protocols, Armenia and Armenian lobbies continue old policies, protocols signed in Zurich just lose all meaning to Ankara. Finally, there is no guarantee that the Armenian lobby does not cease to seek recognition of "genocide" even after the ratification of the protocols with Armenia, because it both formally and actually operates independently of the Armenian state. It is highly unlikely in this situation Ankara will risk the relations with its closest ally Azerbaijan for doubtful dividends and a temporary "respite."
Another thing is also quite clear. Obviously, the new bill is a painful "stud" to Turkey, another "headache" for Paris, but will it be any better for the citizens of Armenia? Moreover, if the law does not pass through the Senate (and this scenario at least cannot be excluded), the relations between Turkey and France are very likely to recover. However, the prospect s of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey, already quite dim, are pushed back into an even more uncertain future. Armenian politicians will find it difficult to say that the power structure in the region does not change. In this situation Armenia may paradoxically become the part that will lose the most from this French maneuver.
Author: Orhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
