As in previous cases, Israel made no comments on reports in the Iranian and Western media about Israeli involvement in the murder of the scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan in Tehran. However, the American blogger Richard Silverstein was quick to state that Mossad initiated the act.
It seems nobody in Iran doubts it. Moreover, Roshan’s murder was carried out under the same scenario as the murders of several other Iranian scientists – using a bomb fixed to his Peugeot-405 car. Describing the murder, the Israeli media mentioned only that Roshan was a 32-year-old chemist, who took a position as the deputy head of the nuclear center in Natanz and dealt with marketing and other economic issues. Earlier, Roshan worked at creating polymeric membranes for separating gas. This technology can be used for uranium enrichment.
The full attention of Israeli politicians and military men is focused on information on uranium enrichment at the plant situated near the Iranian town of Qom. A meeting of the Israeli Army’s headquarters was devoted to this issue. It was emphasized that this plant is difficult to attack by conventional armaments, as it is situated 98 meters below ground. Israeli experts noted that at the moment the uranium enrichment plant in Qom is functioning at a level of 20%, but at any moment this level can be increased up to 90%. 12-18 months will be needed for that.
Of course, the army and the government of Israel have no intention of giving away their plans for liquidation of the Iranian threat. However, a group of experts from the National Security Research Institute under Tel-Aviv University have developed a scenario of the events which might follow the first successful tests of a nuclear weapon by Tehran, as it may happen in 2013.
The full variant of the scenario was sent to Prime Minister Netanyahu, and it is top-secret. Meanwhile, some fragments came into the hands of journalists. The authors presuppose that possession of a nuclear weapon by Israel will change the distribution of forces in the region. After it the US, trying to prevent Israel from a military campaign, will offer it a defense deal, which will probably include the accession of Israel to NATO. According to the scenario, Russia will approach the USA trying to prevent a nuclear arms' race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will intensify its own nuclear program, while Egypt will insist on a military campaign against Iran. Turkey will do its best to avoid clashes with Tehran.
According to the forecast by the Institute, after the first successful nuclear tests, Iran will carry out a series of provocations. Iran will use a nuclear weapon as its main trump card in negotiations for improving its international positions.
On Wednesday, January 11th, American physicists move the pointer of the symbolic Day of Retribution Clock one minute forward. Now the Clock reads five minutes to nuclear midnight.
Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK
