Who will take second place in Kazakh polls?

The early parliamentary electoral campaign in Kazakhstan is coming to an end. Already this Sunday, January 15, voters will determine the new composition of the legislative body, which will include at least two parties according to the Kazakh new legislation. Russian experts shared their forecasts on the upcoming events with "Vestnik Kavakza".


A research fellow of the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, Leonid Gusev believes that there is no doubt in the victory of the pro-presidential party "Nur Otan" party in Kazakhstan. It is still not clear which will be the second party to enter the legislative body. Gusev believes that parties will fight hard for this place. The position party "Adilet" has been holding major positions in the country since its leader Maksut Sultanovich Narikbayev is the former Attorney General of the country and a friend of the Kazakh President. Gusev said that at the moment "Adilet" is loosing its power and the "Ak Jol" party is gaining popularity. In expert's opinion, it is hard to say which party will win the elections.

Leonid Gusev does not rule out the possibility that all the three parties will enter the parliament, although in reality at maximum two parties can enter the parliament. The expert believes that the authority of the ruling party will not be decreased with any election results. "Against the background of parliamentary elections in Russia and the turmoil in Western Kazakhstan, the situation is quite tense. Let us not to forget that a number of foreign companies engaged in oil and gas sector as well as other sectors of the country are in Kazakhstan. That is why it is very important for Astana to show transparency and openness of parliamentary elections and demonstrate that the country is on the democratic path of development, " Gusev believes.
 
Sergei Mikheyev, Director General of the Center of Political Conjuncture said that in his opinion the new Majilis will definitely include representatives of the two parties.

"What will actually happen is hard to say, but I do not think that more political organizations will manage to elect their representatives. Such an outcome is unlikely because most of the Kazakh parties are nominal and inactive. Therefore, I suspect there will be two parties in the Majilis or maximum three parties. But most likely the parliament will include two parties. The second party will be only a nominal opposition party and act as a "constructive opposition", - said Sergei Mikheyev.

The election results will be announced on January 16. Observers of the mission of the CIS, as well as Parliamentary Assembly (PA) of the OSCE will present results of their observation the same day.

Head of the Staff of the CIS mission, Yevgeny Sloboda said that representatives of the international observer mission of the CIS will visit the town Zhanaozen on January 15. On December 16 a state of emergency was introduced in Zhanaozen due to clashes between protesting plant workers and governmental authorities.

Sloboda said that mission representatives have already arrived in the regional capital of the Mangistau region,  Aktau, where the are working on issues related to the supervision of the elections in Zhanaozen.

Head of Staff informed that the mission includes 262 observers from all Commonwealth countries, except Moldova.

The vice-president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Wolfgang Grossruk expressed the hope that the elections in Kazakhstan "will be fair and honest" after meeting with Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan.

Evgeny Krishtalev, exclusively for VK