On December 22nd, 2011, the National Assembly of France adopted the bill, which says denying the Armenians’ genocide in Ottoman Turkey in 1915 subjects to a 45-thousand-euro fine and sentence in prison for a year. This is not the first time in history of the French parliament. Each time this or that bill was considered ahead of presidential elections, when the political elite of France, parties, turned the Armenians’ genocide to an instrument of political struggle.
However, French politicians have no solid view on the problem. For example, Nathalie Goulet, senator from Orne, thinks the French bill on criminalization of denying the Armenians’ genocide won’t be approved by the upper chamber of the parliament. According to the candidate to presidential position Dominique de Villepin, France shouldn’t discuss and ratify this bill: “It’s not France’s business. Each time we discuss such issues, we strike other countries, our economic and political allies.” At the same time, relations between France and Turkey have been worsened already. Turkey as a successor of the Ottoman Empire is partially responsible for the events of 1915, but not to France.
Reaction of Turkey
Right after adoption of the bill Turkey heavily criticized France and broke up diplomatic relations with it. Turkish Premier stated the country stops military cooperation with France by suspension of joint maneuvers and limitation of French Air Forces flights above the Turkish territory. According to Erdogan, Turkey developed a stages plan out of 8 items on freezing economic, political and military ties with France. Moreover, Turkey accused France of multiple murders of Arabs in Algeria and providing Hutu with armaments and knowledge in Ruanda, which caused genocide of Tutsi in 1994.
Considering the fact that France closed doors to the EU for Turkey, Ankara begins focusing on East, where a new situation is being established after the Arab Spring. Turkey provides new policy as a leading country of the region.
Consequences for Azerbaijan
The French bill hurt Baku either, as it is a strategic ally of Ankara. Turkey and Azerbaijan are connected by language, religious, traditions, and other factors. In the foreign political space they have common opponent, Armenia.
As for Azerbaijan’s reaction at the bill, first of all, the government and the ruling elites took a waiting position. Secondly, discussions are taking place among experts and political scientists. The society boycotted French goods and held a protest demonstration near the French embassy.
President Ilham Aliyev supported Turkey, while other top officials criticized the bill.
It is obvious France ruined its neutrality in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Since 1992 the Minsk Group, including co-chairs from the USA, Russia and France, deals with the settlement. The new policy of France questions effectiveness of this structure and reduces Azerbaijan’s trust to France. Baku can consider replacement of Paris for other state if the Senate ratifies the bill, the Azerbaijani political scientist Fikhret Sadykhov thinks.
Benefits for Russia
Moscow will probably gain an advantage from the situation, as it holds influence on settlements of the Karabakh conflict in its hands and is not interested in Turkey’s accession to the EU. Russia and Turkey has close political-economic relations: a simplified visa regime, a great number of Russian tourists in Turkey, and a great number of Turkish construction companies in Russia. Turks like Russians have big influence in the Caucasus region.
In addition, there was signing of the documents on construction of the Southern Stream between Turkey and Russia. This project makes Nabucco senseless.
Next developments will happen after voting in the Senate of France in late January. At the moment, Paris damaged its image as a neutral co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE. As for Ankara, it might not break all ties with France. First of all, it contradicts the WTO rules and the Customs Agreement between Turkey and the EU. Secondly, in the Syrian conflict it is not beneficial for Turkey to lose a strong ally, France. Baku supports Ankara. Azerbaijan can use oil contracts as an instrument of influence or make some other diplomatic step.
Shakhim Yusifov, Strasburg. Exclusively to VK
