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By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VKIlya Ponamorev, Russian MP from “A Just Russia” party and Nataliya Cherkesova, the president of the ‘Rosbalt’ media-holding, explained the nature of the Russian protest movement to a German audience, as well as the plans of Russian opposition leaders for the next few months.
It seems that any opposition leader from the CIS space is automatically a welcome guest in Europe: you just have to use words like “civic society”, “alternative opinion”, “transparency”, etc, to get the attention of European human rights activists. The hall of the German Society for Foreign Policy, where Nataliya Cherkesova and Ilya Ponamorev made their presentation under the pretentious name “Arab Spring in Russia?”, was full. Of course, as the moderator of the event and well-known expert Alexander Rahr pointed out, it would be quite incompetent to try to compare the events in the Arab world with Russian developments, so the loud title was more of a publicity gimmick than a description.
According to Ilya Ponamorev, the nature of the poll protests that broke out in Russia after the December parliamentary elections is purely civic and has nothing to do with politics. However, he didn’t miss the chance to advertise his own political party: according to him, the first rally was financed exclusively by “A Just Russia” members, and the white ribbons – the symbol of the protest movement – were created as such by his party’s assembly. He also said that the level of political awareness of the protesters is low, and the movement has no bright political leaders at all. Another characteristic of this movement, according to him, is that it has a distinctly “Moscow” shade to it: Moscow rallies gathered up to 150,000 people, while there were only 10,000 demonstrators in St.-Petersburg. Ponomarev says that the movement’s leaders plan to gradually increase the numbers and hope to gather 200,000 for the demonstration scheduled for February 4.
It is quite possible that by referring to the protesters as ‘politically incompetent’, Ponomarev tried to hide the fact that the participants in the rallies are as much disappointed in the parliamentary opposition as they are in the ruling party. It is unlikely that the “A Just Russia” party, deemed to be pro-Kremlin in its essence by many, could head the opposition movement. However, it didn’t make the German public less interested in what Mr Ponomarev had to say.
“15% theory”
Ilya Ponomarev offered an interesting explanation for the sudden spike in Russia’s oppositionist activity and protest movement. According to him, the reason for this outbreak of protest is the violation of the unspoken agreement between those in power and the developing middle-class of Russia, which forms some 15% of Russian society. After the sloppy and undisguised reshuffle attempt in the highest ranks of power these previously politically-inert people decided that it’s time to take up a civic position.
Role of the Internet
Nataliya Cherkesova explained to her listeners the direct correlation between the rise in the number of internet users and the strengthening of information connections between the regions to the rise of the protest movement. For example, in regions where 50% of the population regularly use the internet, “United Russia’s” results were relatively low, while in Mordovia or Tuva, where very few people are internet users, the party won the elections.
“Navalny is a nationalist”
Answering the questions of the presentation’s guests, Ponomarev gave a brief characteristic of several protest movement leaders. For example, he said that the famous anti-corruption blogger and one of the most popular leaders of the street protests, Alexei Navalny, is a nationalist. According to Ponomorev, the Russian public tends to ‘forget’ it now, but it is still true. He also admitted that if fair elections were held in Russia today, nationalists would win 20% of the votes.
The Russian president is the main target for critics
During their presentation both members of the opposition didn’t hesitate to criticize Russia's leaders: PM Putin and President Medvedev. However, even they had to admit that Putin is truly the most popular politician in Russia, while Mr Medvedev, according to them, is nothing but a political pawn. However, Medvedev has shown himself as a more ‘liberal’ politician, which is why he still has more support among the Western public. One of the presentation’s guests mentioned that he is the one who encouraged the use of the internet and conducted some liberalization of Russian society that allowed the protests to be organized in the first place.
Will there be a revolution in Russia? This question seems to be the most topical. According to Ponomarev, it is unlikely. He also advised European media to cut the criticism of Russian authorities for human rights abuses, as it allows Kremlin to depict the opposition as nothing more than ‘agents of the West’.
It seems that the widespread protest is as much a surprise for Russia's ‘professional’ opposition as it is for the Russian authorities and European experts. Old Russian opposition figures do their best to ‘ride the wave’ with different grades of success. It is true that the Russian protest movement has no formulated political goals, nor dies it have a single leader – so European experts are at a loss whom should they ask to comment on the developments. Whether the answers of the ‘pre-Bolotnaya’ oppositionists are adequate remains to be seen.
