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By Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK
Public opinion polls usually play a large role in pre-election campaigning. Political expert Arman Gevorkyan told VK about the role of polls in Armenian social life.
- The Eurasian Cooperation Foundation has recently published the results of its poll conducted on the request of the US National Democratic Institute. According to the poll’s results, 23% of Armenia's population are ready to vote for the ruling Republican Party, 24% prefer the coalition ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party, and only 3% are ready to vote for the opposition Armenian National Congress. Do you think these figures reflect the reality?
- The experience of all the election campaigns I’ve monitored in Armenia shows that one shouldn’t trust any of the published poll results while conducting a serious political analysis. Most of the polls are politically committed and serve PR purposes. Usually they are used to disorient electors who haven’t yet decided how to act or external forces who are interested in the elections’ outcome. Also, such polls could serve to ruin the confidence of some external political players, to convince them they have no chances of winning. The true picture could be completely different.
- Could you give any specific example of that?
- In 2008 the British polling agency ‘Populus’ conducted exit-polls, and they coincided with the results of the elections presented by the Central Election Committee. However, a few years later since the WikiLeaks publications we’ve learned that the real results were completely different, and that opposition candidate Levon Ter-Petrosyan won 35%, not 21% of the votes. Nevertheless, it was the ‘Populus’ poll whose results were widely accepted abroad, despite the fact that there were other organizations that conducted exit-polls and whose results were much closer to the real figures. However, no one abroad new of these alternative polls. Foreign brands are often used here to boost confidence. Today it’s the US National Democratic Institute. But in reality foreign organizations don’t conduct the polls themselves, they only allow local sociologists to use their names. For example, this was the story with the ‘Gallup’ polls here.
- And what about the polls that are not intended for publication? Do they reflect reality?
- Some embassies conduct public opinion polls and get realistic results. Some parties with financial potential also conduct polls in order to see the real picture and form their strategy accordingly. But these results are never promulgated.
- So pre-election polls don’t play their usual role in Armenia?
- Each country has its own peculiarities of political culture. Armenia hasn’t yet arrived at ‘civilized’ election campaigning, so it is still usually associated with delivering disinformation rather than information. The population doesn’t believe the pre-election polls.
- And why is the population so indifferent to these polls?
- People had to listen to the same “specialists” for 20 years. The value of the numerous polls is totally devalued. People know who they are voting for and they see that the polls’ results are inadequate.
- If people don’t pay attention to the polls’ results, where do they take their cue from?
- They vote as they themselves see fit or they are guided by active members of the electorate.
