The increase of the political tensions between Baku and Teheran havs many reasons. The murder of Azeri journalist and writer Rafik Tagi merely gave a push to the new curve of confrontation of the two states, but it didn’t constitute the only reason for it. Even though one of Iran’s spiritual leader openly called to violent actions against Tagi, and some public figures in Iran who greeted the murder, official Baku didn’t make any accusations against Teheran – at least, for now. However, this murder became an evidence that Iranian fundamentalits intend to provide their activity in Azerbaijan, and they would use any measures for ruining secular volumes of the neighboring state. At the same time, the real ground for permanent tension hides behind different foreign political landmarks of two states. The current escalation of tension should be views within improving international isolation of Iran, as well as intensive speculations of the world mass media on possibility of launching strikes by NATO and Israel. In this context Tehran is very angry about any information on cooperation of Azerbaijan with "the big devil" - the US, and especially Israel. Thus, intensification of contacts between Azerbaijan and NATO concerns Iran very much. Recently President Ilham Aliyev has told about plans on financial support of the Afghan National Army, and this step is made in favor of NATO, of course.
In this context multiple Baku's reassurance that its territory wouldn't be afford for attack at the neighboring states do not influence behavior of IRI. Tehran is dissatisfied with the fact that Azerbaijan provides the foreign policy not in the Iranian direction. Moreover, military experts believe that Azerbaijani territory is not urgently needed to the US as a platform for attacks at Iran. However, the point is in political, ideological, and informational-cultural influence. Baku’s reassurances of friendly intentions towards Teheran didn’t lower the level of hostility of the latter. Paradox of the situation is that Tehran's steps on mistrust to Baku strengthen the political forces of Azerbaijan, which stand for absolute support of the West on the Iranian issue. It doesn't reflect Iran's interests.
The other theme for discussion in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations is the question of renaming Azerbaijan into North Azerbaijan. The new name, according to the authors of the idea, would be a reminding about division of the territory, where Azerbaijani people lived, between Russia and Persia in 1828. Such proposal was made by the deputy of the parliament from the opposition United Party of Peoples Front of Azerbaijan, Gudrat Gasanguliyev. Siyavush Novruzov perceived the proposal kindly: "It is an important issue. The world has North and South Korea, North and South Cyprus. It would be reasonabla if Azerbaijan were called North Azerbaijan, as a clashed state." However, other deputy from the ruling party, Rabiyat Aslanov, critisized the idea heavily in one of his interviews. He called the proposal unacceptable and dangerous for relations with Iran. According to analysts, we cannot expect such a step from Baku. The editor-in-chief of the magazine Ruusia in Global Policy, Fyodor Lukyanov, is sure that the attitude, expressed by a group of Azerbaijani PMs, is not stong, and the authorities of the country understand what cercumstances could cause territorial claims to Iran. The expers leaves open possibiliy that even if this step was agreed with power, it was only a test run, which can be denied at any moment. "Probably it is an element of the political game conducted by the US and Israel in the region, as clounds gathered around Iran. And it is not out of place to remind Iran it has problems at its north too," Lukyanov thinks.
It should be noted that the idea of renaming the republic was a counterstroke to Iran. In late December 2011 the deputy from Urmia, Nadir Gazipur, stated that if the Azerbaijani Republic wouldn't correct the foreign policy toward Iran, the Iranian deputies would discuss reconsidirationof the Turkemchan treaty: "For several years the Republic of Azerbaijan is an independent state. However, if we look at laws, the territory of Azerbaijan belongs to Iran. If the officials continue the game against Iran, the Azerbaijani deputies of the Iranian parliament would raise a question on reconsideration of the Turkemchan treaty." Iran is concerned with the fact that in azerbaijan activists of the natioal movement of Iranian Azerbaijanis live as political migrants. Gazipur called them "hipocrats and counterrevolutionaries."
Of course none of the countries would implement threats, which were voiced in parliaments of two sates. The idea of denunciation of the Turkemchan treaty is impossible to be providen. It would mean that Iran should take inhand the territory of Armenia too, which is protected by Russia, and be involved into military conflict with Turkey, which guarantees security of the Nakhchyvan Autonomus Reoublic. Renaming Azerbaijani into North Azerbaijan is not absolutely favorable for Baku. Iran has East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan, and some forces would want to enlarge the list by North Azerbaijan.
However, when it comes not to individual opinions of political and religious activists, but to exchange by notes of protest, it is a serious signal of worsening relations. First note of protest was sent by the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan, after a terrorist group, which planned murder of foreigm citizens initiated by the Iranian special services, had been detacted in Baku. If the fact of detacting the terrorist plot was announced in the media as an official statement, it means a certain political decision. The Iranian side still hasn't replied at the note of protest from Azerbaijan. Moreover, it sent its own protest note. According to IRNA, on February 12 the ambassador of Azerbaijan in Tehran, Djavanshir Akhundov, came to the Foreign Ministry of IRI to receive a protest note. The note said that "Azerbaijan provides conditions for anti-Iranian activity of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad, free enter and exit of terrorists to the country, while thay are involved into murder of the Iranian physist." The note demands Baku to stop such activity. Moreover, it was said that Iran provides anti-Iran propaganda in the mass media. The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan stated the information is not true.
However, Iran has no evidence against Azerbaijan. Furthermore, there is one aspect. Azerbaijan is blamed for supposition by Iran that "involved into murder of Iranian scholars terrorist elements moved about the territory of Azerbaijan and had wide possibilities for visiting Tel Aviv with the hepl of Mossad. The poilt is that the murder of the Iranian nuclear physist was commited in the capital of Iran, Tehran, not in Azerbaijan. It means that "involved into murder of Iranian scholars terrorist elements " moved about the territory of Iran too. Continuing the Iranian foreign political logic, it could be said that Iran supports terrorism no less than Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the Iranian note of protest became another serious argument for Azerbaijani supporters of taughening policy toward Iran.
To be continued.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
