The convincing victory of Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections in Russia, where he won 64% of the vote according to the CEC, was fairly predictable. The high rating of the Russian Prime Minister was indicated in survey results, regularly published on the website of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion. But last year, when the decision of the party "United Russia" to promote Vladimir Putin as a candidate for presidency was announced, it was clear that Europe would react quite critically to the prospect of his return to the presidency. At some point, the Europeans even began to set great hopes on the opposition “Bolotny” ("swamp") movement, who opposed Putin's return to presidency. But, as Russian political analyst and director of the Effective Policy Foundation, Gleb Pavlovsky, correctly pointed out, Russia's Prime Minister was able to mobilize his supporters effectively. Pavlovsky, speaking on March 5 at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that during the time of his cooperation with the Kremlin, a scenario was being elaborated for Vladimir Putin’s call for the support of his entire electorate - people dependent on government funding and social benefits. Yet, the political consultant says, this scenario was prepared in case of a crisis such as war or natural disaster. But Vladimir Putin has decided to use "the general mobilization of supporters" in a more trivial situation - during the presidential election. And the presidential campaign had a kind of "military tone", and the current presidential elections have been presented as no less than a "battle for Russia."
Apparently, the Europeans will accept the choice of the Russian people (despite the violations, which are much spoken and written about, few doubt Putin's objective popularity among the people). In fact, there is no other option. Despite the fact that those most disappointed in the results of the elections call for sanctions against Russia, no one takes them seriously: in the end, the EU and Russia are so strongly "tied" to each other economically, that, in principle, there can be no talk about any sanctions. The EU did not propose specific sanctions even after the war of August 2008, which in the eyes of Europeans was in any case an incomparably more serious event than the dubious episodes in the elections and the dispersal of the anti-Putin rally on Pushkin Square. Finally, the newly-elected Russian President has supporters. New statements about Vladimir Putin by former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder had the effect of bombshell. The politician from the SPD party said that he does not repudiate his own words that Vladimir Putin is a "crystal-clear democrat" and that he is confident in Putin’s democratic convictions. The former Chancellor expressed doubt that there was significant manipulation during the Russian elections. "When I hear some assessment of election observers, such as, for example, Mrs. Beck, or what's-his-name (Schroeder has in mind the MP Volker Beck, known for his “untraditional” sexual orientation - VK), it seems to me that these estimates are biased rather than objective judgments."
Frankly, today European experts and politicians are not so interested in the purity of the elective procedure as in another question: what will happen on the political scene in Russia, and how her foreign policy priorities will shift in the third term of the presidency of Vladimir Putin? ARD television journalist Hubert Seipel, who shot a film about the Russian Prime Minister and constantly accompanied him for a long time, has given its own forecast on the development of the political situation in Russia. According to the journalist, there are only two options: either there will be further escalation of the conflict between supporters and opponents of Vladimir Putin, while the latter will be subjected to repressions, or else in the next two or three months there will be a constructive dialogue with the opposition, because Putin understands that the newly formed "middle class", which considers him to be their enemy, will be growing the future.
As for economic relations between Russia and the EU, in particular Germany, the experts have no special concerns about this. Rainer Lindner, Head of the Eastern Committee of German Economics - one of the influential think-tanks of the country - believes that Russia's accession to the WTO will bring more stability and legal security for investors. German investments in Russia are increasing from year to year, and representatives of German business who have made the decision to work in Russia do not regret it, Lindner says.
German experts have much less optimism about Russia's foreign policy, which on many issues collides with the priorities of the West. Significant differences relate primarily to the issue of deploying a missile defense system in Europe: Russia will not allow the neutralizing of its armaments. There should be a compromise and a rethinking of the policies of the West, experts say. Political scientist Stephen Meister, relying on domestic political considerations, says Vladimir Putin in the near future will perhaps make concessions in foreign policy matters. Therefore Meister does not expect any progress from the Russian President's future visit to the NATO summit in Chicago. Moreover, the choice of the time for the summit is politically very unfortunate: neither Barack Obama, who plans his re-election for the second term, nor Vladimir Putin who has just won the elections, will depart from their previous positions, and they will act with an eye to voters who are expecting hard solutions from them.
But most importantly, the Europeans in Russia have nobody to rely on. A "snow revolution" or "swamp movement", etc. provoke an understandable sympathy in the European audience, but this "new opposition", as the facts show, is too amorphous to have high hopes set on it. And the structured opposition in Russia is too weak and fragmented. Finally, the percentage of ultra-nationalists is growing within the street opposition, which Europe certainly does not want to see at the helm of such a vast and powerful country as Russia. Putin represents stability and predictability, and for this "commodity" there is always a buyer in the political market. This means that while the experts, human rights activists and journalists will again respond to the proverbial question «Who is Mister Putin?», existing policies, government officials and businessmen will conduct business with him, not paying much attention to incriminating material in the blog of Alexei Navalny.
Author: Orhan Sattarov, Head of the European office of VK.
