Alexei Vlasov, Ismail Agakishiyev. Exclusively to VK
In recent weeks various mass media publishers have reported on serious concerns surrounding the situation in the South Caucasus. Alarmist attitudes are appearing again. Many experts expect the beginning of a military conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran. The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh is not calm either, as the ceasefire regime is violated and people are killed there.
There is a real reason for concern. However, the Russian authorities attentively follow the development of the situation, without striving for rash and thoughtless decisions. Not only the East, but also the Caucasus is a delicate matter. The opinion of those authors, who try to prove that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with negotiations on the Qabala RLS and is attempting to influence the internal political situation in Azerbaijan, is ambiguous.
The question of the cost of the Qabala facilities is a separate theme for analysis and consideration. Taking into account the statements by the Russian side, we see no negative predictability in prospects of solving this problem. Moreover, it is weird to hear from experts that the Guba Lesgians and Zakatal Avars could be used by Moscow to put pressure on the Azerbaijani authorities.
The methods of indirect pressure used by Washington in the Middle East, in the South Caucasus and Central Asia shouldn’t be imputed to Russian diplomacy. Moscow is interested in a situation where Ilham Aliyev maintains stability in the country by the 2013 elections and doesn’t allow the forces that want destabilization in Azerbaijan to fulfil their plan.
We see opposite examples – the successful cooperation between Russian and Azerbaijani enforcement agencies. For example, the arrest of the terrorists who plotted an attempt on Vladimir Putin’s life on the territory of Azerbaijan and their transportation to Russia.
One of the bases of bilateral relations is the friendship connecting the leaders of the two countries. This concerns relations between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev especially. In a sense it is the political heritage that was given to his son by Heydar Aliyev. It is not a secret that in the difficult year of 2010 Putin supported the new Azerbaijani leader not only politically, but also from the point of view of personal relations. And this mutual understanding remains to date, despite efforts by foreign players to separate Russia and Azerbaijan.
Of course, there are several problems between Moscow and Baku that need to be resolved as soon as possible. One of them is the problem of the Qabala RLS. However, according to the reaction of Russian politicians involved in the negotiations, the situation is not as clear as some Azerbaijani political scientists want to present it, who recently welcomed a warming in relations between Moscow and Baku, but now they speak about the “destructive” role of Russia played by Moscow in the South Caucasus.
What do these experts want to achieve by establishing a negative information line in bilateral relations? Apparently they don’t want the overcoming of contradictions that appear in the many-faceted dialogue between our states. Nobody says that the policy of suppression is effective. And, for instance, the history of relations between Russia and Belarus proves the opposite.
Why should the situation be exaggerated, especially ahead of the visit to Baku by Motvienko? This question should be answered by those who try to gain additional points without overcoming obstacles, but by burning bridges that have been built with difficulty in recent years by the Russian and Azerbaijani authorities.
