These days the Israeli mass media attentively follow the events in Istanbul where the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program between five members of the UN SC, Germany and the IRI will start on April 13th. The report that US President Barack Obama is ready to allow Iran develop a peaceful nuclear program with complete rejection of the military part of the program caused an ambiguous reaction among Israeli political observers.
The Israeli media emphasizes that an important part of the plan is a total permanent international control under Iran, for it fulfills its responsibilities. “Permission” for peaceful atom is aimed at protecting prestige of the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei. He, as well as other Iranian officials, has many times stated on peaceful character of the nuclear program, and its complete cancel equals to a public capitulation for the Supreme Leader. These American proposals were given to Tehran by the Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan, who has visited Iran recently. Earlier Erdogan and Obama met at the conference in Seoul devoted to the nuclear security problems. According to commentators, “Obama’s plan” includes demand to Iran to close underground facility on uranium enrichment in Fordo, moreover, the plan is thought to be developed in a close cooperation with Israel. In this context it is necessary to list demands by Israel to conditions of future agreements:
Firstly, a complete cancel of uranium enrichment by 20% and taking out previously enriched uranium from Iran.
Secondly, taking out a huge amount of 3.5% uranium from Iran (except for several hundred kg, which won’t be sufficient for developing a nuclear bomb).
Thirdly, building down the facility in Fordo.
Fourthly, a complete control under the Iranian activity in the nuclear sphere by the IAEA.
Fifthly, full transparency of the Iranian activity in the nuclear sphere, especially in aspects that supposed to have a military character.
Analysts pay attention to the fact that the list doesn’t contain closing the uranium enrichment facility in Natanza and a complete cancel of uranium enrichment by 3.5%. Thus, it seems Israel agrees to limited enrichment of the uranium by this index under the international control. If it is so, then a certain correction of Israel’s previous statements happened. Few days ago the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu stated on demand of a complete cancel of uranium enrichment by Iran.
Another necessary notion: uranium enriched by 20% cannot be used for development of a nuclear bomb. For a nuclear bomb uranium enriched by 99% is needed. But 20% uranium is a raw material for the last step on the path to creation a nuclear bomb.
Two days after publication of “Obama’s plan” Tehran’s gave a response. The head of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Agency Fereydun Abbasi said that demands on closing the facility in Fordo and a cancel of uranium enrichment are illogic. Israel was partially satisfied with the Iranian reaction. A top official of Israel said that Iran demonstrates its true intentions and actually pushes Barack Obama and other participants of the negotiations to further serious anti-Iranian sanctions.
Netanyahu, who met the Italiam prime minister Mario Monti last week, emphasized that Iran intends to use the negotiations for temporization. According to the prime minister, demands to Tehran should be clear: closing of Fordo, a cancel of uranium enrichment and taking enriched uranium out from Iran. And fulfilling of the demands shouldn’t be postponed. Tehran understands that Washington is not interested in a military strike and Israeli attack ahead of the presidential elections. The Iranians try to make Obama to soften the position. They are interested in temporization, but not in negotiation’s failure. At the same time, the nuclear program will be developing further.
Israel is concerned with possibility of reaching some agreement between Iran and six powers, which won’t be suitable for Israel. In this case Israel will stay without any international support.
After Abbasi’s statement, Mahmud Ahmadinejas stated that attempts to lives of Iranian scientists wouldn’t stop scientific development of Iran, and the killed would be replaced by “hundreds and thousands of new ones.”
On April 9th a harsh American response followed Tehran’s reaction. The press secretary of White House announced a demand on complete rejection of military nuclear ambitions and a complete cancel of uranium enrichment in Iran. He also emphasized that time for development of a settlement formula is limited and it is running out.
Ahead of the negotiations the sides demonstrate uncompromised positions and readiness to some compromises simultaneously. This week a carrier battle group headed by the aircraft carrier Enterprise came to the Persian Gulf. There are two carrier battle groups in this region at the moment. This week a top official from Washington stated that Netanyahu refused to promise Obama that Israel wouldn’t attack Iran ahead of the presidential elections in November. Israel is afraid that after November a military strike would be useless, as the nuclear program would pass the point of no return and the key facilities would be invulnerable to air attacks.
Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK
