Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European bureau of VK
The information that an Syrian air defense system shot down a Turkish military aircraft carrying out a reconnaissance flight in international (according to the Turkish side) airspace could, perhaps, enter the history books as a pretext for military intervention by NATO into Syria. According to the logic of the processes taking place around Syria, such a situation seemed very likely.
Until recently, the desire of Western countries to pass a resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council, which could be reason for external intervention, met strong resistance from Moscow and Beijing. Russia and China did not hesitate to use their vetoes, and the Western countries hesitated to bypass the UN Security Council. But now the conflict risks moving from the diplomatic sphere, where Syria's position is quite strong due to the support of Moscow and Beijing, to the military sphere. Today NATO countries have a legal pretext for a military operation against Syria. Let us explain this: if the Turkish plane was not shot down over Syrian territorial waters or international ones, according to Damascus, but over the territorial waters of Turkey, it may become a legal basis for a request by Ankara for the protection of its allies in NATO on the basis of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. No wonder Turkey initiated the convening of the NATO Council and made reference to Article 4 of the Treaty, according to which a member may convene the council for urgent consultations if it feels its own security is threatened. It is also significant that, just before the NATO Council meeting, information not confirmed by officials appeared in the Turkish media; the news was about the Syrian air defense firing at the Turkish rescue aircraft. We cannot ignore the fact that this is an element of the information campaign for aggravating the situation around Syria and presenting it as an aggressor threatening the security of Turkey.
Logic suggests that war with Turkey is the last thing that Bashar al-Assad needs. Given that this country has the second-largest army in NATO and in Europe, it would be suicide for Syria to confront it, in particular taking into account that Syria has problems with its own armed opposition. Neither should Ankara be interested in an armed conflict with its neighbouring country. In addition to the inevitable human and economic losses which Turkey will suffer in case of war, its relations with Iran, its other neighbor, will be seriously aggravated at the very moment when Turkey has a real chance to become a mediator between Tehran and the Western countries once again. Talks between Iran and the Group of Six will be held in early July in Istanbul. Ankara is clearly not interested in disrupting these talks. Some experts also predict an aggravation of the Kurdish problem in Turkey.
Thus a possible military campaign against Syria would both torpedo the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue and significantly worsen relations between Ankara and Tehran. Key dividends in case of an escalation of the conflict will be received not by Turkey but, above all, by the U.S. and by Qatar, its ally and the “oil dwarf” of the Middle East. The fact is that the policy of temporary containment of Iran in the gas market matches the geopolitical concept of the United States. The downfall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad will bring more a loyal government to power in Damascus; Qatar, which holds large gas reserves, will be able to install a gas pipeline through Syria to Turkey, and after that to Europe. Thus, the Arab monarchies will get direct access to the European gas market (currently, trade with European countries is carried out by means of LNG terminals). No doubt this will reduce the share of Russian gas in Europe in favour of Qatari gas, and therefore we can talk about the geo-economic background of the events taking place around Syria. Note that the American company Exxon Mobil and the British one, BP, are the main partners of Qatar in the gas sector. So the interests of Western companies are also clear.
Another important aspect is the weakening of the regional influence of Iran in case of the downfall of the regime in Damascus. In particular, the Western countries can cut all communications between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is carried out through Syria in this case. Torpedoing the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program will continue to "choke" Iran economically: thus, Western strategists are already trying to prevent Iran from becoming a strong regional power, which certainly will not play by the rules imposed upon it. More than half a century has passed since the overthrow of Prime Minister Mosaddek in 1953 by the Western countries because of the nationalization of the Iranian oil fields, but during this time many of the priorities in world politics have not changed. And the shift of the situation in Syria to war would be a logical continuation of their implementation. Will the military scenario be carried out? It depends, of course, primarily on the positions of Turkey and Syria. But Russia has a more than significant leverage in order to influence the situation in Damascus and Ankara. Moreover, Moscow is vitally interested in preventing a new "local conflict" in this region. This fire should be put out once again by the Russian diplomats in no small measure.
However, to be honest, it should be noted that the Turkish government itself considered the issue of the downed fighter thoroughly and without militaristic rhetoric or intentional aggravation of the situation. Turkey does not intend to fight a war with Syria because of the downed plane, but it is going to demand an apology and compensation, Bulent Arinc, the official representative of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkey and Deputy Prime Minister told to reporters "We do not intend to incite a war. We are not going to fight a war. We are a serious state. We know what we should do, but we intend to do it step by step," the Deputy Prime Minister said after the cabinet meeting on Monday at which the incident was reviewed and the response to it was discussed, RIA Novosti reports.
He added that Ankara would require an apology and compensation from Syria for the downed plane, but offered the possibility of the engagement of other measures without specifying which ones. In other words, Turkish officials have already announced the future demands of Ankara to Damascus. Now the further actions of Turkey which will determine the next moves in the geopolitical game around Syria and Iran largely depend on the response of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
