by Spartak Zhidkov, Sukhumi. Exclusively for VK
Georgia is unlikely to try and shake the power of Abkhazia over the border district. But a response to such actions is necessary for the president, government and law enforcers. 8 people died at the border zone in the first six months of 2012. “People are usually killed by Georgians cooperating with the Abkhaz authorities and it is done demonstratively. The situation has become especially tense since late 2011 and continues escalating today,” Stanislav Lakoba says. He blames “many Georgian terrorists operating in Abkhazia during Shevardnadze's term, sentenced with the arrival of Saakashvili. But at this period, they were released ahead of time.” They had training at special bases in Anaklia at the Abkhaz border and started sabotage missions. Security Chief of Abkhazia Aslan Bzhania said that sabotage groups mainly consist of the Forest Brotherhood. During Eduard Shevardnadze's term, the Forest Brotherhood was operating in Western Georgia almost legally. Mikheil Saakashvili forced many to go underground, especially when one of the key goals of his policy is restoration of order, which does not go well with uncontrollable formations. But even after being diffused, these groups continue fulfilling their old functions. Abkhazians do not know what a new sabotage outburst against them would be like. But measures are being taken.
Abkhazia is psychologically unprepared for new tensions. After years of exhausting and almost endless political battles, after successful presidential and parliamentary polls, the population has grown tired with all politics. The summer of 2012 has finally brought the long-awaited rest. The resort season, despite constant rain, started no worse than it had in previous years. If the Abkhaz government manages to prevent new inflation and avoid increasing prices for public services (they are so low that even the poorest people in Abkhazia can afford them), the Abkhaz president may consider his position for the upcoming years to be quite firm. In this case, possible destabilization on the Georgian-Abkhaz border would not be a big threat to Abkhazia, yet it does exist. Abkhazians and Russians should be prepared for any surprises at the Galsky District in the next 3 years.
The situation in Georgia shows that the political struggle may easily reach the level it had a decade ago. Abkhazia has always been monitoring the situation in the neighboring state it failed to reach peace with. Abkhazians knew that any coup in Tbilisi could turn into a strike at the Abkhaz borders. In 1995, Georgian opposition leaders Tengiz Kitovani and Tengiz Sigua attempted their own sortie against Abkhazia, stopped by Georgian law enforcers. Georgia has a civil opposition today. Its leader is a businessman, not a securocrat. But that does not mean that tensions in the Georgian capital would not affect Abkhazia. This is why Sukhumi is trying to predict the problems it may face during the parliamentary polls in Georgia.
The coalition gathering around the Georgian president is pretty massive. Even Eduard Shevardnadze called the situation a suitable revenge on Mikheil Saakashvili for the Rose Revolution. It seems that Saakashvili has decided to mobilize his last reserves for the struggle, as can be seen from his appointment of Vano Merabishvili as Prime Minister. Some call him the successor of Saakashvili.
Georgian journalist Tengiz Ablotia described Merabishvili in the following way: “In 2009, the government broke the plan by never using force. The opposition did not do this: it was offending the president’s mother, putting cages all over the city, blocking state structures, sending eavesdroppers to the courtyard of the president’s chancellery, hinting at the cowardly, as they thought, nature of the state leader.” In May 2011, Merabishvili unleashed police forces against that opposition, driving out the many-thousand-strong protesters and winning again. Street protests ended in nothing. Thus, the grey figure of Merabishvili got his reputation as a skillful player, unpredictable and dangerous. But at the same time, as Vestnik Kavkaza reported, Merabishvili was the only member of the Georgian National Security Council to speak out against the attacks on Tskhinvali in August 2008. It was probably not a peace-loving initiative, he just had good understanding of the international situation. Therefore, in addition to Saakashvili, we get two new major players.
Regardless of the outcome of elections and who becomes the prime minister after October 2012, Ivanishvili or Merabishvili, Abkhazians need to prepare for the cold peace changing into dramatic escalations. It will most likely be a short change. Georgia has had few military campaigns in the last 20 years, excluding the conquest of Adjara. But Georgians do not like long wars. Besides, it is hard to imagine the interference of a powerful state to stop Russia, should a new campaign start. If so, escalation may only be temporary, yet spontaneous and surprising. Abkhazians are preparing for such surprises. A lot depends on coordinating the actions of Moscow and Sukhumi. Coherence of the actions of Abkhazian and Ossetian diplomats may become an advantage during tensions.
South Ossetian Foreign Minister David Sanakoyev visited Abkhazia on July 6 and met his Abkhaz counterpart Vyacheslav Chirikba. The official reason for the visit was the resolution of the General Assembly of the UN Security Council on refugees and displaced people. The UN passed the Georgian resolution project, Abkhazian diplomats were not invited to the meeting. The OSCE passed another document on July 9, calling Abkhazia and South Ossetia “occupied territories”, neglecting the report of the EU commission under supervision of Heidi Tagliavini. So Georgia received new western support for the upcoming polls. Although it has no geopolitical importance, because the alliance with Moscow is a lot more essential for Abkhazia and Ossetia than any documents of the UN and OSCE. Georgia may have full confidence that it will get diplomatic support, even if it tries to make benefit from the enemy’s image.
Even a local conflict on the Georgian-Abkhaz border is unlikely. But the situation at the Galsky District in summer and autumn may get complicated regardless of the interior situation in Abkhazia itself. The factor of elections should be taken into account in this situation. It is essential to determine the reasons of incidents, whether it is merely a provocation or a real attempt to undermine the position of Abkhazians and Russians on the Ingur border.
