Politics in South Caucasus is a poker game

Politics in South Caucasus is a poker game

The portal Vestnik Kavkaza was presented at the Media Forum in Minsk . After the presentation the editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza, Alexei Vlasov, gave an interview to journalists.

The latest processes in the South Caucasus, including the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, have become a topic for various prognoses and comments. Azerbaijan blackmails and threatens more frequently. And if you add in the ruined normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia, you could call the situation in the region very tense. The deputy dean of the Faculty of History of the Lomonosov Moscow State University and editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza, Alexei Vlasov, told PanARMENIAN.Net about the situation in the region.

-What could the role of the media be in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem?

-Bearing in mind the current conditions of the conflict, in my opinion it is forward-looking to find points of contact using Internet communication. In the future this would allow a growth in confidence between Armenian and Azerbaijani societies. We can build a more tolerant attitude among the young. As we can see in Moscow or here in Minsk, Armenians and Azerbaijanis are able to communicate normally. Of course, they will defend their positions, they must do, but the task is not to cross the line of conflict. There are positive examples among the Armenian and Azerbaijani media, which perceive information calmly and correctly, I like PanARMENIAN.Net in Armenia and Trend in Azerbaijan. It is on such foundations that compromise can be reached.


-What should we do in a situation where anti-Armenian and anti-Azerbaijani attitudes are artificially built up? How can the societies find points of contact and talk to each other?

-Nationalism is increasing not only in Azerbaijan and Armenia - in Eastern Europe it is global process. We need to learn how to protect our interests and not create an image of an enemy among neighbouring countries. This conflict should be decided at the level of government, there should be no hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. In this sense, people's diplomacy could help, and the first attempts at this have been made. Steps aimed at cooperation should take place on the Internet as well. When the first website devoted to communication between Armenian and Azerbaijani youths is created, and it is not full of mutual accusations, I will say that a big breakthrough has been made in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

-Meetings between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis now take place in some other countries. Is this useful, or should they work at home?

-Taking part in such meetings, I got the impression that they are in vain. I think that the Armenians should go to Azerbaijan or the Azerbaijanis to Armenia. We are working on a project in which Armenian political scientists could go to Baku to meet their colleagues and vice-versa. If this is realised it will be a breakthrough. Willing peaceful relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I understand that meetings in other countries are not fruitful.

-How would you comment on the results of the last meeting between Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev in Saint-Petersburg?

-The statements made by the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, were not for Armenia, but for the mediators. The mediators often behave as if they are in the fable "The swan, the pike and the crayfish". It seems that everyone wants peace, but when they start formulating a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabkh problem, they have different interests. The OSCE Minsk group has been working for 15 years, but so far there are no real results. I can understand the leaders of Azerbaijan, because there are the Madrid principles and the sides should express their positions towards them clearly, and moderators should help them with this. Washington is in crisis after the failure of the ratification of the Armenian and Turkish protocols, so the Americans have paused the process. The position of Ilham Aliyev is understandable, because the pause cannot last forever, and consolidated steps by all the mediators are required.


-In the Azerbaijani media it is always said that the problem will be resolved by war. There is nothing similar to this at the government level in Armenia. What are the perspectives for settling the conflict while officials make such statements?

-There is a proverb "better a lean peace than a fat victory". I think that when politicians make tough statements they are indicating what is possible, but that does not mean that they are ready now, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow to use these methods. We need to realize that an information war is taking place and statements of different levels of toughness could be made by Azerbaijan. There are no such statements on the Karabakh problem by Armenia, but there were on the Protocols, it is a means of applying pressure. We need to remember that politics in the South Caucasus is a poker game. Everyone has their cards, but negotiators can press each other to show what they are ready for. But there is a critical point, when it is clear that the talks have run out of steam, and the question arises: "What should we do if the negotiations are in vain?" Also, the question of the responsibility of the moderators could arise: they must maintain the dynamics of dialogue, not make it a talking-shop, so I hope the moderators will cope with their roles.
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