Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
Today Iran and Azerbaijan are providing the policy of détente in bilateral relations after the long crisis in the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations and Ilham Aliyev’s non-coming to the summit of the Nonaligned Movement in August. For example, the thaw in relations appeared to be possible after the direct order of Ayatollah Hamenei to set free two Azerbaijani poets who were kept in an Iranian prison for several months.
The pro-governmental mass media of both countries reduced number of anti-Iranian and anti-Azerbaijani articles. The National Security Supreme Council of Iran forbade the TV-channel Sahar-2 broadcasting political shows directed against Azerbaijan. The channel was ordered to work only with cultural and social topics. It was announced by the candidate to ambassador of Iran in Azerbaijan, Mokhsin Pak Ajin, at the meeting with officials of the Iranian province Essatern Azerbaijan, the Iranian information portal INN reported. “Unfortunately, Sahar-2 and its form of presenting political topics left an impression that the channel wants to commit a revolution in Azerbaijan. That is why the National Security Supreme Council decided to let the channel broadcast only social-cultural shows,” Pak Ajin said. Moreover, the channel is forbidden to take interviews from people who damage Iranian-Azerbaijani relations by their statements.
Azerbaijan also winded up the anti-Iranian campaign in the media after the poets had been set free. Moreover, Azerbaijani officials heavily criticized the American congressman Dana Rorabaher who plans to present a resolution on support of the movement of Iranian Azerbaijanis for independence. “Iran and Azerbaijan have friendly relations. If anybody has problems, he should come and solve them,” the vice-speaker of the Azerbaijani parliament, Ziyafet Askerov, commented on the project of Southern Azerbaijan. He accused “some forces” of desire to ruin relations between Azerbaijan and Iran.
“Iran recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan – of Iran. Presenting this bill in the White House and discussion in the Congress don’t mean a sincere attitude to Azerbaijan. The congressman had better pose a question on pressing Armenia due to occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territories and on solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Azerbaijan doesn’t claim to territories of any other state,” he noted. The similar view was stated by the executive secretary of the ruling party New Azerbaijan, Siyavush Novruzov.
However, despite emphasized amicability demonstrated by the sides toward each other, certain irritants remain: the Azerbaijani government hasn’t changed the moderate pro-Western course. The situation in Iran hasn’t changed as well: the group of states headed by the US presses on Tehran through economic sanctions and tries to eliminate the regime of Bashar Assad – the only ally of Iran in the Middle East.
The geopolitical factors which determine the confrontation character of relations between Baku and Tehran didn’t disappear. One of such factors is Azerbaijani support of European and American energy and political interests in the region. It concerns the project of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline which is planned to transfer Turkmen gas to Europe. This Baku position was confirmed again by the Minister of Energy, Natik Aliyev. The position of Turkmenistan plays a big role in the Trans-Caspian project. If Ashkhabad considers it to be important for coming to Western markets, Azerbaijan will support this idea and establish necessary conditions for the pipeline construction through its territory. At the same time, Natik Aliyev stated that the project doesn’t belong to Azerbaijan, and its realization doesn’t depend on Baku. “The EU is interested in implementation of the project. The Trans-Caspian is an element of the South Energy Corridor which transfers energy resources from the Caspian to Europe. Azerbaijan participates in trilateral consultation, and the work continues,” he said. “There are certain difficulties. For instance, Turkmenistan wants to export and sell at least 30 billion cubic meters of gas. The EU should guarantee purchasing of this volume. Furthermore, the question on financing the construction of the pipeline is still dim. Who will construct the pipe? It’s also unclear,” Aliyev stated, As for the positions of the Caspian states, Natik Aliyev said that the Trans-Caspian pipeline is a problem of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan only.
Earlier Moscow and Tehran have many times stated against this project, explaining their position by an environmental threat for the Caspian Sea and unsettlement of the Caspian legal status. In fact Russia wants to maintain the gas monopoly in Europe which might appear at risk in case of Turkmenistan’s independent coming to the European markets. Azerbaijani gas from Shakh-Deniz-2 which will be mainly purchased by Turkey is not a rival for Gazprom in Europe. Unlike Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan is a gas giant and takes fourth place in the world on gas resources. It explains Moscow’s desire to prevent a potential competitor from the generous European market.
Iran (second place in gas reserves in the world) is in the international isolation now, but it looks to the future in the gas policy. As well as Russia, it is not interested in a new serious player in the European market – Turkmenistan. Turkmen gas can be transferred to Europe, but the gas pipeline has to be constructed in the Iranian territory, Tehran believes.
One more fact negatively influencing Azerbaijani-Iranian relations is absolutely different positions on the Syrian issue. Azerbaijan is a non-permanent member of the UN SC and supports Western resolutions directed against the regime of Bashar Assad. However, in this problem official Baku correlates its position with Turkey and plays a symbolic role, as all resolutions are doomed to be vetoed by Russia and China. At the same time, Baku hasn’t made loud statements against the Syrian regime, trying to distance itself from the problem.
Finally, Iranian-Armenian cooperation and Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation continue negative influencing Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. Nevertheless, these topics are not mentioned in both Azerbaijan and Iran in recent times. The states prefer to pass them by.
