Armenian society is tired of the same politicians

Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The leader of "New Times", the presidential candidate Aram Karapetyan, in an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza indicates the reasons for the political persecution of Vardan Oskanian and the interests of the West and Russia in the upcoming presidential elections in the republic on 18 February 2013.

- How do you see the cause of the "Oskanian case"? Can I say that as a result of this political order, Oskanian lost the chance of becoming a presidential candidate?

- Starting with the deprivation of immunity, all the events taking place around former foreign minister Oskanian are a political game, with three scenarios. I suppose in the first scenario the Armenian authorities are promoting Oskanian’s candidacy as a rival to the current president Serzh Sargsyan, so that subsequently Oskanian easily recognizes the victory of the incumbent president. The fact is that Oskanian is too vulnerable and easy to reproach by his share of responsibility for the tragic events of 1 March 2008, and it has undoubtedly played a role in the choice of officials. I can also assume that by using the fuss around Oskanian "Prosperous Armenia" is trying to enlist the support of opposition voters, presenting its own candidate. The third version of the game is related to the super-powers, including Russia and the U.S.. Oskanian is a pro-Western politician, and "Prosperous Armenia" declares itself as a pro-Russian party; respectively, either PAP or Oskanian should change their orientation, but it is not yet clear who will do this. I note that, objectively, Sargsyan today has very bad odds for re-election, but based on the experience of past elections it is clear that, in principle, it is not difficult to draw some figures in the elections in Armenia. In this case, a priori, under equal initial conditions Sargsyan will lose to any normal candidate at the start. Accordingly, in order to regularly reproduce, the authorities need specific technologies aimed at enlisting the support of "Prosperous Armenia" in the upcoming presidential election.

- What will the support of the PAP give to the Republicans?

- First of all, this is the ability to draw on the results of the election the figures that are more or less close to reality, because without the support of the "Prosperous Armenia" drawing this figure will be difficult. Today we see the situation of the country, as a result of the inadequacy of the authorities, and the level of public trust in government. In these circumstances, the support of the PAP will let the Republicans once again share their responsibility for the drawn numbers in the presidential election with it, providing a particular argument for this. Considering "the Oskanian case" from a legal point of view, everybody will understand that this is just a bubble, therefore, pre-election machinations in the occurrence of this case are obvious. It is obvious that if Oskanian nominates his candidacy, it will be clear that he does so with the permission of Serge Sargsyan. That is, in any case, this option is flawed and has no political scientific value. In any case, understanding that for the next presidency Serzh Sargsyan will need a pro-Western candidate presents itself both in Yerevan and in Moscow, because Serge Sargsyan cannot beat a pro-Russian candidate. But beating a pro-Western candidate is possible, especially given the tradition to portray any opposition candidate as Westerners and then to “beat” him in the election by massive fraud. It is possible that a similar scenario is being prepared for Oskanian.

- Yes, but can we call President Sargsyan a pro-Russian politician, given his penchant for "euro-repair"?

- I think that the main problem is not the point, because the Kremlin’s manner of working with governments in the post-Soviet space is clearly not justified, given that in virtually all countries of the CIS the forces coming to power are largely westernized. Accordingly, maintaining continuity in the geopolitical policies and the impact of the superpowers in the country requires working with all political parties, and not just with the government. And today in Armenia, Moscow faces a problem generated by this attitude. Yes, there is the military-political component of the strategic partnership between Armenia and Russia, but in all other respects, we have become pro-Western. Yes, there are pragmatic politicians trying to build good relations with Moscow and Brussels, but no one including "Prosperous Armenia" has an ideological affinity with Moscow. In this case, the main problem of the Armenian opposition in today's circumstances is inconsistency in their actions, respectively, in the current circumstances it is unlikely to be able to come to an agreement on a single candidate in the election of 2013. Therefore, the opposition in Armenia can win elections only with a candidate who has an extremely rigid, radical, uncompromising position. Unfortunately, there are no such politicians in Armenia, and everyone is tied to each other by mutual agreements, and in some cases by compromising information. Accordingly, it can be concluded that Armenian society wants to see at the helm of power politicians whom people have never seen there. We are tired of the same people and, as a result, if we want such a candidate to win in any election in the country we need to change the entire political system of elite relationships.

- But in Armenia, there are politicians that previously stood at the helm, but they do not have any power today. Robert Kocharian, for example...

- Robert Kocharian may run in the upcoming election if there will be the external demand and the political order for this. So far, there is no such demand, because changes in Armenia scheduled from outside will be carried out by other people who have the chance to do that well in excess of the political possibilities of Kocharian. Beginning in 2008, the entire PR of Kocharian is built on his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and on the fact that in the years of his presidency people supposedly lived better. But when viewed objectively, the situation in Armenia remains unsatisfactory.

- But may the opportunities of Kocharian be sufficient for the premiership?

- I do not see any realistic scenario and with the appointment of the Prime Minister Kocharian, because the ex-president, according to the information I have already, has said that, while Serge Sargsyan was prime minister under his presidency, there cannot be any opposite situation. So I think that the current situation suits Kocharian, especially given that at the time of his presidency he became one of the founders of the criminal-oligarchic system in Armenia. The same can be said of Levon Ter-Petrosian, who also feels quite at ease. In this context, there is an inexorable necessity of creating new opportunities for new political forces, capable and most importantly, willing to break the current vicious system and to create a new normal system of power formation and governance. In my view, whether the authorities want it or not, they will not survive for a long time at the helm, even if they are able to survive in the upcoming presidential election. Under the current political system, to my great regret, this can be done only by the rebellion.

- What are the main challenge now facing Armenia?

- The main challenge facing Armenia, which cannot be overcome, is a challenge to economic development of the country. Today the situation in this area continues to be extremely disappointing. Another important challenge is a gradual degradation of the Armenian population that results in fraudulent elections, the presence of sects and other unsightly conditions. I believe that the solutions to all these problems are interconnected and are embedded in the inadequacy of the authorities. In this case, I do not believe that the notorious European integration will help prevent acts of force majeure scenario in Armenia. I mean bloodless change of power in a normal, civilized way. Country's relations with the European Union do not lead to qualitative changes; the Armenians are not Europeanizing – on the contrary, they are degrading. In this case, it happens not because of the notorious European integration, but because in Armenia there are processes which Europe cannot influence. It is not even able to deal with the situation in the Member States – in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc. So Europe clearly has nothing to do with us, and for real, not declarative integration into the EU an understanding of the world in the political, economic and legal aspects must be built in Armenia, without rushing into the EU in the form in which the republic exists. The processes taking place in our country cannot be changed by only external factors; we need internal forces, factors and motivation.