Susanna Petrosian, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Post-election developments in Armenia show that the authorities, in spite of all the promises, failed to conduct unprecedented democratic elections without any shocks.
The first shock was an assassination attempt on one of the presidential candidates, Paruyr Hayrikian. The next shock was the number of meetings in support of the candidate who took second place, the leader of "Heritage", former U.S. citizen and former Minister of Foreign Affairs (1991-1992) Raffi Hovannisian. The latter is convinced that he won the real victory in the elections on February 18 with a ratio of 80% to 20%. Hovannisian at a rally in Yerevan declared himself the fourth President of Armenia and called on voters to fight for the return of "stolen votes."
All the efforts of the authorities to ensure peaceful elections that would largely be focused on the control of major political opponents of the president, the radical leaders of the opposition parties like the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and the moderate opposition of "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP), Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Gagik Tsarukyan, led to no results. Even the non-participation of these politicians in the race was not a limiting factor in the development of the post-election process, which is accompanied, according to a well-established tradition of Armenian political life, by a wave of discontent. In short, the refusal of the leading opposition forces - the ANC, the PAP, as well as "Dashnaktsutiun" - to participate in the elections was not enough to prevent a wave of popular anger.
The reason for dissent remains the difficult socio-economic situation. During the five years of the current administration, none of the issues, including reducing the prohibitive prices for goods and services in relation to the average wage, creating jobs to reduce unemployment and the ongoing migration have been resolved. According to official data, about 35% of the population of the country are poor. The complete absence of social advancement and real democratic and economic changes in society contributes to the conservation of enough heat to pour out at the appropriate moment in the protests against the current government.
According to many political scientists, the votes for Hovannisian are mainly votes against the current government. "The candidate who received second place didn't get votes for Hovannisian, but votes against Sargsyan," the director of the "Caucasus" Institute Alexander Iskandaryan says. Political analyst Armen Badalyan also believes that Hovannisian's votes were not obtained from his supporters but from protest voters who were against the government.
Some members of the opposition and many experts are generally skeptical about the chances of the movement led by Hovannisian and consider the actions of his supporters unpromising. So, according to the representative of the ANC, Gurgen Yeghiazaryan, Hovannisian has organized rallies, but nothing concrete has been said on his future plans: "It was a fruitless meeting. For example, he said: let Serzh come and give me the power. This is like a fairy tale, and this does not contain any major elements, it's just clowning." "Post-election developments in Armenia are completed, and the actions by Raffi Hovannisian cannot lead to anything serious. Now there is a limp attempt to create the appearance of the continuation of these processes," Deputy Director of the "Caucasus" Institute Sergey Minasyan says.
Let us try to understand the reasons for such skepticism and the main features of the actions by Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters."
First, the leader of the "Heritage" party does not enjoy any significant political support, in addition to the support of the ARF, declared at the meeting on February 22. Among others in the entourage of Raffi Hovannisian there is a former presidential candidate who declared a hunger strike against the actions of the ruling party aimed at electoral fraud, Andreas Ghukasyan, former representative of the ANC, Karapet Rubinian, who is unhappy with the "pro-Russian" political line pursued by the ANC, and other outcasts.
Secondly, the "Heritage" party does not have the necessary organizational experience and no established network of territorial structures.
Thirdly, Hovannisian makes illegal demands. Namely, at a rally on February 22 Hovannisian told the audience that, during his meeting with the President on February 21, he put three demands, which received a negative response. In particular, Hovhannisyan proposed Sargsyan to cancel the announced election results and "to recognize the victory of the people," which implies a rerun of the presidential election.
However, fulfilment of these requirements lies in the competence of the Central Election Commission and the Constitutional Court, and not in the responsibility of the President. The second requirement by Hovannisian declared in a conversation with President Sargsyan, according to the leader of "Heritage", concerned the immediate declaration of early parliamentary elections to be held solely under the proportional representation system.
Meanwhile, according to the fourth part of Article 117 of the Constitution, the president may dissolve it and call for a special election until the first session of the National Assembly (NA) of the next convocation. However, the first session has already started, so he will not be able to dissolve the parliament. In addition, under Article 74.1 of the Constitution of Armenia, the President shall dissolve the National Assembly if it twice in a row in two months does not approve the program of the government. "Implementation of a new parliamentary election is not a concert on demand," deputy speaker of the National Assembly, a spokesman for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) Eduard Sharmazanov said.
In addition, Hovannisian demanded that the President punish counterfeiters. But even here, if you look at the situation from a purely legal point of view, Hovannisian addressed the wrong place, because these questions are resolved by the police and the courts, not the president.
"The political feasibility of this meeting is not clear," political analyst Sergey Minasyan says. In his view, if Raffi Hovannisian has decided to legitimize the victory of Serzh Sargsyan, this can be done in the first few days after the election, "and not to declare himself the fourth president, and then go to the meeting, and if he decided to continue the fight, it is more than unclear why does he need to go to the president in such a way?"
Such clumsy requirements say that Raffi Hovannisian and his team do not have a clear tactical or strategic political agenda. The absence of such a program is also clear from the fact that the self-proclaimed fourth president Hovannisian for some reason went to the regions and urged voters to protect their votes, while there is one simple truth - that revolutions are usually made not on the periphery but in the capital. In the case of Armenia, where the capital city is home to over one third of the population, this formula is fully justified.
All of the above-mentioned factors, plus the absence of support from the ANC and the PPA, indicate that this movement will gradually fade away soon. The statements by the PAP MP Naira Zohrabyan that the PAP carefully studies and analyzes the current situation look very uncertain, as well the statements by the ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan that he has always been a supporter of the case, but so far the protesters have not done anything, and they just say "the time will come, if there is a need and if we deem it necessary, we will join this initiative," the former president said.
The February 18 presidential election showed one very important fact: the presence of a large protest electorate, even according to official data. But about 37% in the whole country and 43% in the capital vote for only one opposition force, in this case in favor of the leader of the small party "Heritage".
On May 5, another important political event - the election of the Council of Elders of Yerevan - is scheduled. These elections are considered important because Yerevan is home to over one-third of the electorate. With a well-established and active work of the opposition forces like the ANC, the PAP, ARF and "Heritage", the Republican victory could become problematic. A precondition for this is that Raffi Hovannisian scored 43 percent of the votes considered by most experts as protest in the capital. Clearly, however, the protesting electorate turnout was incomplete during the presidential elections in the capital.
