Armenian Diaspora in USA plans on South Caucasus

David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusive to Vestnik Kavkaza

On Tuesday Vladimit Putin met his Armenian colleague. Serge Sargsyan’s official visit to Russia is the first foreign visit of Armenian President after the elections. There are very few details on the summit.

Recent events in Armenia have caused close attention to be paid to the internal political situation in the republic: the leader of Heritage Raffi Hovannisyan, who was thought to be an outsider of the election campaign, suddenly won 37% in the presidential elections and refused admission of Sargsyan’s victory. The attention appeared among administrations of leaders of the USA, the UK, and France. All of them encouraged Sargsyan to break the status quo over Karabakh and register the success in the Armenian-Turkish process. The recognition of the elections’ results by the West and Russia means that foreign players can connect their interests in the region with prudent Serge Sargsyan.

President of the USA Barack Obama told his Armenian colleague in his congratulatory message that Washington intends to contribute to the peacemaking process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. American President directly hinted at the necessity “of making a valuable step toward settlement, which will provide long-term peace and security.” According to him, the USA want to continue working on the possible normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Some aggressive circles in Armenia and the environment of Raffi Hovannisyan have already characterized Obama’s message as a demand “to leave the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.” The opposition criticized the State Secretary Kerry for proposing one-sided concessions for Armenia in the Karabakh settlement because there can be no other interpretation of the phrase “to change status quo.” The opposition is sure that considering Turkey’s demands and Armenia’s interests, the USA expect a change to the status quo from Armenia, i.e. withdrawal from the territories. This is a price for the US congratulations and perspective support.

This suggestion is quite possible because the initiative president of Armenia has many times demonstrated readiness to concessions. The readiness was shown after the initiation of the Armenian-Turkish process was  based on failed protocols. However, Serge Sargsyan played his role to the West and it has enabled him to receive dubious congratulations after very dubious presidential elections.

According to the head of the Armenian Center on National and Strategic Studies (ACSNI) Manvel Sarkisyan, the “pro-Russian attitude of Serge Sargsyan and pro-Western attitude of Raffi Hovannisyan are based on fairytales which were imagined by Armenian politicians who are far from political analysis; and it has nothing in common with the current reality.” In international politics absolutely other factors are important. The interests of almost all superpowers are being implemented in Armenia today, and these interests often do not contradict each other.

However, the deputy chairman of Heritage Armen Martirosyan doesn’t agree with the expert’s view. According to Martirosyan, Hovannisyan would never yield in ethnic issues, that is why many countries support Sargsyan. The main reason for this support is the position of the President on several important foreign political issues. “Sargsyan accepts the Madrid Principles of the Karabakh settlement and shameful Armenian-Turkish protocols. Hovannisayn does not. That is why they congratulate Sargsyan with the victory,” Martirosyan is sure.

Recently the US ambassador in Armenia John Heffern said in his video-blog that the US’s goal toward Armenia is shifting Yerevan’s views toward the West because “no country can depend on only one partner.” The most interesting fragment of the ambassador’s speech was the story on his visit of Armenian-populated towns of the USA in December, where he met representatives of Armenian Diaspora. The ambassador stated that Armenians from Diaspora “were interesting in Armenia’s problems and were ready to contribute to changes in the republic.” Actually Heffern hinted that the American policy in favor of Armenian society and diaspora could make the Armenian authorities – either new or old – take certain steps. The most important in this situation is a price for American readiness to encourage the development.

Speaking about the US Armenians, the diplomat presented them as a guarantor that Armenia would have to pay for American support by concessions in a strategic issue. It is well-known that Armenian Diaspora in the US has a tough position on national-strategic problems, unlike the state policy of Armenia. Hovannisyan, who has come from California and doesn’t recognize Sargsyan’s power, is the best provider of such a policy directed against Russian presence in the region.