Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
The process of turning Mikhail Saakashvili into the "lame duck" of the Georgian policy came to its logical end last week. On March 18, the process of considering amendments to the Constitution relating to restrictions on the right of the president alone to appoint the cabinet in case of the dissolution of Parliament began. The amendments to the Constitution propose giving the president the right to dissolve parliament at any time, but the president will not be allowed to dismiss the government without the consent of parliament.
On March 21, the Georgian parliament unanimously passed the first reading of the amendments. "There is the de-sovereignization of Saakashvili, who in all respects completes his political activities. The presidential party has behaved quite cleverly, by insisting on preferential voting and keeping the chance to stay on the scene with a new leader," the independent political analyst Malkhaz Chachava said. Thus, according to local analysts, UNM is trying to demonstrate their reserves of opportunities, while the Georgian president himself, as they say, goes away.
The only option that remains now for Saakashvili is more pressure on the government and parliament and using connections in the European structures. The recent statement of the European People's Party posted on Facebook by one of the Polish deputies suggests that in Brussels there are politicians who are ready to help Saakashvili get out of this difficult situation. The president has no other resources within Georgia. But it is difficult to agree with those experts who believe that this is the final victory of Ivanishvili. Decisive round of confrontation should be the presidential elections to be held in October.
Therefore, an important question remains who will be nominated by Saakashvili and UNM as a candidate. The president of Georgia still has a few months with the support of Brussels and less pronounced support of Washington to invent some version of, if not remaining in politics, counterbalancing the "Georgian Dream" and its leader. Nevertheless, immediately after the vote in parliament, Saakashvili impulsively said that now he had decided to stay in politics.
In addition to pressure from the European structures, it is possible to appeal to the fact that the acute socio-economic problems facing Georgia are not resolved by the new government. In Georgia the miners' strike and the railroad strike were recently held, and it is possible that the social situation in the country will deteriorate by the autumn. The "Georgian Dream" does not have enough time, because, in addition to the persecution of supporters of Saakashvili and the adoption of amendments to the legislation, it is necessary to show that the modernization of Georgia continues and the electoral slogan "Every Georgian will have a better life" is being implemented. Otherwise there will be a loss of public support, the resources of which is currently large enough.
Meanwhile, the EU predictably calls on Georgia (or on the new leadership) to correct the errors of the electoral legislation before the presidential election in 2013 and to respect the duties of President and Prime Minister according to the Constitution. In addition, the EU recommends reform of judicial system to ensure full independence of the judiciary, to avoid criminal prosecution for political reasons and selective law, to conduct independent investigations into incidents of mistreatment of prisoners in the prison system, and to continue the constructive participation in the Geneva talks.
As for the Russian-Georgian relations, in this area Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania again soloed. On 21 March, the Minister said that the process of establishing trade relations with Russia reduced the potential for conflict. "The recent trade and economic relations with Russia have reduced the potential for a resumption of hostilities", Alasania said at the meeting of the parliamentary committee on defense and security.
At the same time, Alasania said that the armed forces of Georgia must be in constant alert because of the additional bases of Russia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "Last year the situation in the occupied by Georgian enemy - Russia - territories, according to intelligence, did not change. I would say that it is complicated by the fact that in the last year additional fortifications and bases in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (South Ossetia) appeared," Alasania said. In these words there is the main contradiction of the current stage of the bilateral dialogue - the inability of Tbilisi to clearly define who Russia is for Georgia, a potential partner or an enemy number one.
Meanwhile in neighboring Armenia battle over the choice of the vector of foreign policy priorities - European or Eurasian integration - is continuing.
On March 19-20 Yerevan hosted the 12th round of negotiations on the Association EU-Armenia Agreement. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said that negotiations started in July 2010 on the association agreement through bilateral efforts come to an end. According to him, the Armenian authorities have assumed responsibility for the implementation of large-scale reforms, and these efforts are evaluated properly, and the EU intends to provide additional appropriations to Armenia.
The officials noted that the overall objective of the parties is to complete negotiations until the Eastern Partnership summit scheduled for November 2013 in Vilnius, , especially as discussion of the main issues has been completed.
However, in an exclusive interview to Radio Liberty, the chairman of the Committee for Foreign Affairs of European Parliament, the European People's Party deputy chairman Elmar Brok said that the EU could not sign a contract for a deep and comprehensive free trade area with a country that was a member of the Customs Union initiated by Russia. He also noted the need to make a choice, and that choice should be made not only by Armenia, but also by the other Member States of the "Eastern Partnership", which are also seeking to join the free trade area proposed by the EU.
There is a feeling that official Yerevan will not be able to maneuver in this matter as long and successful as, for example, Viktor Yanukovych. The matter of choosing priorities is becoming more acute. On the other hand, the newly elected president of Armenia shows full confidence in the dialogue with the opposition and makes no concessions to Raffi Hovannisian, who for the past week clearly lost momentum. Hovannisian at the meeting on March 22 made a number of demands to Serzh Sargsyan - to hold early presidential or parliamentary elections during the current year and prior to that to make the necessary changes to eliminate the majoritarian electoral system in the electoral law. Hovannisian demands to release from office at least five governors and appoint other candidates submitted by him. All of this is very similar to running in circles.
The media war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh problem settlement is continuing. Ilham Aliyev in his speech on the occasion of Nowruz once again outlined the position of Azerbaijan in respect of the negotiation process: "We all remember the famous statement by the heads of the OSCE Minsk Group on the fact that the status quo is unacceptable and must be changed. But in reality no action is taken. Armenia, of course, is interested to keep it this way as long as possible - the position of neither peace nor war. But, of course, all the steps taken to address this issue should be based on international law. Outside it any step can not be made. " Indeed, the situation in the negotiation process still seems a dead end. It is hard to say exactly what steps the mediators can undertake to move the process forward.
In the recent report by Director of U. S. National Intelligence James Clapper to Congress on threats to U.S. security it is said that the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh remains a potential flashpoint. "Sharper rhetoric, lack of trust on both sides and recurring violence along the contact line increase risks of miscalculations that could suddenly worsen the situation", Western analysts state. This is certainly true. However, for many years decision-makers in the region are expected not to say common phrases but to undertake something.
