By Vestnik Kavkaza
Today the citizens of the Islamic Republic of Iran will come to ballot station to vote for a new president of the country. The choice of the Iranian people will determine the future of the country which is undergoing difficult times. Six candidates take part in the elections. The Supreme leader of the country Ayatollah Hamenei called all citizens of Iran for fulfilling their civil duty and said that “elections are expression of people’s will, their participant in the country’s fate.”
The events over the presidential elections in Iran are being discussed not only in the friendly to the IRI countries, but also to its opponents. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel, Zeev Elkin told Vestnik Kavkaza that the presidential elections won’t influence Iranian-Israeli relations. “First, it is difficult to talk about democratic elections in Iran when the list of candidates is determined in advance, and any candidates who even slightly deviate from the general line are just not allowed to run for election,” Zeev Elkin said.
The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel is also sure that the position on a key issue of the Iranian nuclear project will have no difference between all Iranian candidates. “They are all clearly in favor of its continuation,” he said.
The general director of the Center for the Study of Modern Iran, Rajab Safarov, stated that the Iranian situation related to the elections is probably clear to everybody. “Many thought that the presidential campaign would be a fierce unpredictable struggle, and the situation could develop with all sorts of options and consequences. But that did not happen.”
According to the Russian expert, six candidates remain now. “When we gathered here and talked about how the campaign could evolve, who may be the clear favorite for the final, who can come to power, then we had a forecast that, most of all, many registered candidates would withdraw their candidacy in favor of the favorites in the elections. As for the conservative wing, which is the spiritual leader of the line and the main defender of Islamic values and the current political system of Iran, it promotes Saeed Jalili or Velayati. Others would withdraw their candidacy due to the fact that they will not have a chance. This did not happen in part, but in this regard practically nothing happened, because none of this camp withdrew their candidacy, except, perhaps, Haddad Adel. As for the so-called liberal, reformist wing, we have also partly guessed, but in fact our forecasts are not 100% accurate,” Rajab Safarov noted.
He thinks that the favorite is still Hassan Rouhani. “The West, and many other states, and some of Iran's population, the more liberal-minded and waiting for serious reforms in the country, are betting on him. Will there be a second round? To date, as we are talking about this, the chances of Saeed Jalili and Velayati are equal. There were days when Velayati had a few percent more. Public opinion polls were conducted fairly regularly and on various websites, and the voting that took place, of course, was far from the realities of modern Iran, but nonetheless prompted some preference options. Sometimes it happened that Saeed Jalili was ahead of him. Therefore, based on this stable trend, the chance is somewhere around 60%, maybe even 65%, that in the first round there will not be any winner, there will not be a person who can get more than 50%. Most likely, we will see a second round, and in the second round there would be Hassan Rouhani from the reformist wing and either Saeed Jalili or Ali-Akbar Velayati. But in any case, many experts today believe that Hassan Rouhani is the favorite, and in any case he would come to the finish line second or third. If he comes second, there will be a second round. If he comes third, then, obviously, the fight will be between Saeed Jalili and Ali Akbar Velayati,” the expert emphasized.
The presidential elections in Iran will take place in the context of active preparation for the peacemaking conference in Geneva on the Syrian problem, in which Iran intends to take part. Hoseini Amir Abdollahian, the deputy foreign minister of Iran, stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran will positively follow the developments connected with Iran’s participation in the conference. “Despite the ambiguous information on participation or non-participation of Iran in the conference, Tehran has always been and will stay an important part of settlement of the Syrian issue,” Hoseini Amir Abdollahian is sure.
“None of the countries which will take part in the Geneva conference has a right to speak for the Syrian people. All regional and foreign countries should do their best to establish a background for the Syrians to agree between each other. We believe that military approaches which have been used for 2.5 years have brought nothing good, only destruction. Unfortunately, we can see that import of armament to Syria from the USA and European countries continues. Americans and some European states provided armament to Syria since the very beginning of the conflict. So, the new decision of the EU on elimination of bans on armament supplies to Syria wasn’t new for us. The time of Americans and other sides who support militants in Syria is over. Continuation of support of militants and terrorists who are absolutely irresponsible will be a reason for absence of stability in neighboring countries,” Hoseini Amir Abdollahian says.
