Victoria Panfilova, observer of NG, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
In August Azerbaijan will host a summit of Turkic-speaking states. It is confirmed that President of Turkey Abdullah Gul will take part in the event. He will arrive in Baku on August 15th. Apparently the leader of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and of Kyrgyzstan, Azlambek Atambayev, will visit the Azeri capital as well. It means the so-called “Turkic quarter” will gather at the top level.
“It is not clear who will represent Turkmenistan or whether Uzbekistan will be represented at all, as it ignored previous summits,” an informed source from diplomatic circles told the author. This is no surprise. Ashkhabad has never been active in the international arena. Tashkent constantly speaks about improvement of practical effectiveness of various unions. It was a reason voiced by President Islam Kerimov for Uzbekistan to cease being a member of the CSTO, for example. Even though Tashkent hasn’t criticized the Turkic-speaking states in this way, it seems that after this summit Uzbekistan will show more interest in the organization. The reason is that the summit will discuss intensification of economic cooperation between the Turkic states, investment projects, and even the possibility of establishing a common market.
These problems were discussed during the recent visit by the Foreign Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu to Baku. Speaking about improving the role played by the Turkic union, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that the engine of the process would be the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the repeated the well-known phrase: “One nation – two states.” He reminded that the foundation of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States was an initiative by Baku and Ankara. The essence of Davutoglu’s words is that bilateral cooperation is nice, but it should be extended: “We can work together in Central Asia.”
Ahmet Davutoglu’s cautiousness is notable. He didn’t present an active economic alliance with the participation of all Turkic-speaking states. The diplomat believes that at the beginning triangles are perfect, where the third partner of the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance can be Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan.
However, there are certain specificities. Ashkhabad permanently emphasizes its neutrality. The foreign political doctrine of Turkmenistan is maximally independent. So it never strives to take a position in “local” political or economic unions. Moreover, Ashkhabad has unsettled issues on oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea with Baku. At the same time, Turkish money feels comfortable in Turkmenistan, especially in the construction business.
The situation with Kazakhstan is not simple either. President Nursultan Nazarbayev is thought to be one of main initiators of integration ideas in the post-Soviet space. However, Astana wants to be a leader in the alliance, rather than a secondary player. One question is - how does Nazarbayev treat the integration structure, if he is not its initiator? And another is – will he be happy with Azeri-Turkish plans to invest intensively in the economies of the Central Asian states? Let’s remember the polite refusal of Kazakhstan towards Azerbaijan’s proposal to build an oil refinery especially for Kazakh oil from the Kashagan field, which is planned to be exported through Azerbaijan to Turkey and then to Europe. Astana built an oil refinery on its own territory. It is not because Astana doesn’t trust Azerbaijani oil refineries or Azerbaijani investments, but due to the desire to demonstrate its independence. Since that time, Kazakhstan’s level of ambitions haven't diminished.
It is an absolutely different situation with Kyrgyzstan. The poor country is enthusiastic about any kind of investment – credits, grants, investments in any economic sector. However, in this case Azerbaijan and Turkey will behave carefully – in recent years Bishkek’s financial and business image has worsened in partners’ eyes, and now they are careful.
The head of the Baku club of political scientists “The South Caucasus,” Ilgar Velizade, commented on the summit for Vestnik Kavkaza and stated that Turkey’s desire to intensify investment policy in Central Asia could be explained by the positive experience of Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation in Georgia and other joint projects.
