Mikhail Belyaev, exclusively to VK
If until recently in the presidential race in Azerbaijan there was a sort of pre-election intrigue, now, perhaps, all the doubts about the inevitability of the victory of the incumbent president have vanished completely. The Council of National Democratic Forces, which teamed up a number of opposition parties, is torn apart by numerous internal conflicts: it was long ago predicted by many analysts that the heterogeneity of the opposition and their fundamental mismatch of interests made it impossible to create a political alliance.
Formally, the "National Council" continues to exist and meet regularly, but the question of the nomination of a single presidential candidate against the objective problems with the registration of Rustam Ibragimbekov has become a bone of contention between the major powers in the council. Among them we can highlight three groups: the "Musavat" party, the Popular Front and the movement "El" headed by Eldar Namazov - a former senior official of the Presidential Administration during the rule of Heydar Aliyev, who later joined the ranks of opponents of the government. The latter is in a tight alliance with the agreed common candidate of the council - Rustam Ibragimbekov.
The next session of the "National Council" on August 21 did not answer the main question: who will run in the election from the opposition if the candidacy of Ibragimbekov is not registered. It is has been learned that the next session of the "National Council" will take place at the initiative of its head Eldar Namazov on August 26, which caused serious dissatisfaction on the part of Ali Kerimli (PPFA) and Isa Gambar ("Musavat"), who wondered why it was necessary once again to delay the issue of the choice of an alternate candidate. As a result, the latter revived the old structure, the predecessor of the opposition "National Council" - the so-called "Public Chamber", convening it for an emergency meeting. The fact that Kerimli and Gambar bring into the game another parallel opposition union, partially duplicating the "National Council", suggests that the broader platform of the "National Council" is on the verge of collapse. This was indirectly confirmed in an interview with the Azerbaijani news agency «Haqqin» by one of the members of the Board of the "National Council", the editor of the agency "Turan" Mehman Aliyev, recognizing that the "National Council" is deadlocked. In addition, there is growing discontent among the opposition, including journalists, who criticize the council members for not being able to agree with each other.
So on August 26 the final decision on the nomination of a single candidate from the opposition should be made. Whether Rustam Ibrahimbeyov or an alternative "reserve" candidate will be elected is still to be agreed and unknown. The fact is that Namozov announced the receipt of certain information about the absence of obligations to Russia related to Ibragimbekov, who is a Russian citizen. But will this information be a sufficient legal basis for the CEC to close its eyes to the second nationality of Ibragimbekov and register him as a candidate for the presidency? This is an open question. Meanwhile, Ibragimbekov once again surprised his Baku supporters, who are tired of waiting for him, declaring that he again goes to Europe and the United States to discuss the "election".
Thus, VK has already predicted, in less than two weeks before the end of the official deadline for registration as a presidential candidate, the Azerbaijani opposition has so far failed to overcome internal conflicts. Lack of coordination between government opponents is in favor of the current president's team with its candidate Ilham Aliyev. A clear proof of failure of efforts to mobilize the public was the opposition rally organized by the "National Council", which collected a total of about 2 thousand people - exactly 10 times less than was promised. If the "National Council" at the initial stage hoped to gain some support from foreign countries, in its present state nobody wants to support it.
